When Will China Use Force against Taiwan?

The Chinese government regards the unification of Taiwan is a vital part of “China Dream.” From the beginning, CCP’s main challenge was to unify Taiwan. Chinese people are very nationalistic and uncompromising about the status of the island. President Xi Jinping has made it clear that there will be no compromise on any territorial and sovereignty issues. Beijing’s actions and policies towards Diaoyu, Spratly, and Paracel islands have confirmed this belief. The 2015 Chinese military white paper placed “greater emphasis on the employment of military power” to defend national interests. Statement of this kind demands special attention.

China’s first priority is to achieve peaceful unification of Taiwan with the mainland. The government of China is pursuing the goal of peaceful unification for the last six decades. China has invested a large amount of money and encouraged people to people engagement to accelerate and facilitate rapid assimilation of Taipei.

China is following a path of strategic patience toward the island for a long time. China maintains that Taiwan was always a part of China and it would unify Taiwan, if necessary by military means. Realistically speaking, Beijing’s strategic patience will be over when it will have the technological, military and economic means to prevent the United States from intervening in a conflict over Taiwan.

The Chinese parliament passed an “Anti-Secession Law” in 2005. Article eight of the law made it clear that China would employ “non-peaceful” means under these conditions:

  1. If “Taiwan independence” forces, under whatever name and method, accomplish the fact of Taiwan’s separation from China
  2. Or if a major event occurs which would lead to Taiwan’s separation from China
  3. Or if all possibility of peaceful unification is lost.

Therefore, a war may break out over Taiwan in many forms. China-Taiwan relation is structurally unstable.

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