The West has been in a proxy war with Russia for a year now. As of this writing, the Russians have captured approximately 20% of Ukraine. Putin had long hoped to have his neighbor under complete control by now. So far, Zelensky has had to cede a significant portion of his land, which involved the destruction of Ukrainian cities. There has yet to be a winner. However, this may change soon.
Either way, any kind of victory will be considered a Pyrrhic victory. Both sides have suffered extensive damage in numerous ways so far. Therefore, a victory will no longer be a complete success. But it will have massive consequences for the future of the world. The Russians will soon make a second attempt. They have had time to prepare for this spring offensive. They changed the commander-in-chief of the operation. Surovikin made way for Gerasimov, which was not only a military-strategic but also a political decision. They are sending more and more people who have had several weeks of training into Ukraine. They will probably mobilize more people to ensure numerical superiority on the battlefield. Since the Ukrainians will receive a great deal of military aid within a month or two, Russia has limited time. That military aid includes state-of-the-art tanks with which they could go on the offensive. Also, the ground will thaw with the end of winter. That may hinder a major offensive because of the mud and sodden ground. Time is ticking faster than the Russians are preparing. They still need to create a more numerous superiority of troops to start a major offensive. So we will have to wait and see what Putin will do next.
Aside from the military, Russia’s economy didn’t do that bad last year. Despite the sanctions, their economy contracted by only 3 percent. Much less than predicted by the West. The IMF even predicts slight economic growth for the coming year. At the same time, the UK is projected to shrink by 0.5%. They have opened up their market more to the east. India has significantly increased its imports of Russian gas. The West has often explicitly asked countries, including India, to limit their trade with the Russians.
But India made it clear that no country has the authority to stop its relations with other countries. The voice of the West is no longer superior on the world stage. China and Iran have also benefited from trade with Russia since the invasion. The assumption that the Russians are isolated is wrong. Not only economically are they not isolated. Politically, they also have more than enough ties to other countries. Lavrov has visited many African countries in recent months. They know that there is much to be gained politically on the African continent because of Westerners’ unpopularity.
Nor is there much unrest in the country because of the war. The demonstrations during the beginning of the invasion were greatly exaggerated. Till now, they remained limited in size and number.
In general, Russia has become obligatorily closer to non-Western countries. They are part of increasingly powerful anti-Western organizations. These organizations are gaining popularity and offer an alternative. More and more countries are trying to join and or cooperate with them. Think of the SCO, and don’t forget the BRICS. That the West failed to stop the war is seen by many as the ending of their dominance. It is a signal to detach from them more quickly. Especially in the financial realm, they hope that Western sanctions will lead to the accelerated erosion of the dollar and euro as dominant currencies. Countries of the SCO want to use the Chinese yuan more often between each other.
Many had predicted that the net would close around Russia. Now, the West is being surrounded by projects between countries with mostly authoritarian cultures and hostility toward the West. This was already an inevitable outcome because of the balance of power that has been shifting for some time. In the following months, if Russia can penetrate Ukraine’s defenses, it will inspire other ambitious countries to pursue spheres of influence. They will seek increasing economic independence from the West and develop ever more powerful weapons to keep their rivals at bay, including nuclear weapons. China wants to nearly quadruple its nuclear arsenal by 2035, from today’s 400 to 1,500.
Democracy will also risk losing ground. Autocratic countries are getting politically and economically increasingly powerful. Their political systems will become more popular with a Russian victory. The non-Western powers smell blood and want to take advantage of this situation.
If Russia still wins in Ukraine in some way, the steps toward a multipolar world will accelerate, with the center of power shifting quickly. Numerous countries are secretly hoping the Russians will not lose. There is much at stake on the Donbas battlefield in the coming months. It will determine the course of the world.
[Photo by Silar, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons]
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect TGP’s editorial stance.
Alerio Omari is a Belgian Political Science student. He is interested in geopolitical problems.
