US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken’s recent Saudi visit (June 6-8, 2023) was significant not just in the context of Washington-Riyadh ties, but has important ramifications for the whole of the Middle East. Several security and humanitarian issues pertaining to the Middle Eastern region were discussed during the meetings between Blinken and Saudi Crown Prince Muhammed Bin Salman (MBS) and Saudi Foreign Minister, Faisal bin Farhan. Blinken also flagged some important issues during his speech to Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) foreign ministers.
The Saudi-Iran deal signed in March 2023, which has resulted in normalization of ties with Iran has raised the possibility of greater stability in the Middle Eastern region, and resolution of some of the important conflicts in the region (especially Yemen and Syria).
During his address to GCC Foreign Ministers, one of the issues which Blinken addressed was the possible normalization of ties between Gulf countries (other than UAE and Bahrain) and Israel. There is no doubt, that in recent years Washington’s ties with Saudi Arabia and UAE have witnessed a downward slope. One of the main causes for this is has been the warming up of both these countries to China in the economic and strategic spheres.
At the same time, Washington’s robust ties with Qatar have strengthened and Qatar was declared a major non-Nato ally in 2022. This was first announced during the visit of the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani to the US in January 2022.
Qatar had played an important role in talks, pushed by the US, between then Afghan government negotiators and the Taliban regarding the US exit from Afghanistan. The agreement reached between Taliban and US was dubbed as the US-Taliban deal or Doha agreement. Later on, after the US exit from Afghanistan in August 2021, Qatar helped in the evacuation of US citizens and nationals of US ally countries from Afghanistan. Given its reasonable terms with Tehran, Qatar has also sought to play a role in reducing US-Iran tensions, and been an intermediary between both countries with regard to the possible renewal of the Iran nuclear deal/Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
As a result of Iran expanding its uranium capacity, and supplying drones to Russia, the possibility of renewal of the Iran nuclear deal may seem dim, since US has imposed a series of sanctions against Tehran in 2022 and 2023. At the same time, back-channel talks between both sides have never really stopped per se.
The US has been making attempts to ease tensions with Iran to prevent any instability in the Middle East. Washington however cannot lose sight of the fact, that while China’s ties with GCC are steadily growing, and Beijing-Tehran ties are also robust, US-Iran ties are rock bottom while ties with GCC as mentioned earlier have witnessed some strains. It is important thus for Washington to give one last shot to revival of the nuclear deal. In May 2023, talks between US and Iran were held in Oman. According to a report, White House Middle East coordinator Brett McGurk secretly flew to Oman, while a delegation from Iran was led by Iran’s top nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri Khan. The Iranian and US delegations did not meet directly, but senior Omani officials passed messages. Apart from Iran’s high levels of uranium enrichment, US is also supposed to have conveyed its reservations regarding Iran’s support to Russia during the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
It has been reported that Iran and US are working towards an interim nuclear deal, through which US would provide sanctions relief, while Iran would reduce its uranium enrichment. Both sides have however categorically denied this.
The fact that Oman is playing an important role in these talks, highlights the importance of this Gulf nation which has followed a balanced foreign policy. It also underscores the point that while Saudi Arabia and to some extent UAE may draw more attention, in economic and strategic terms other GCC nations are equally important in the economic and strategic context. Oman’s role as an intermediary also sends out a message, that in spite of the belief of many commentators US-GCC ties remain strong and that the GCC is a diverse bloc with countries having numerous convergences, yet each member state gives precedence to its own economic and security interests.
Blinken’s Saudi visit, and his interaction with GCC foreign ministers as well as the role of Oman in US-Iran talks clearly reiterates the strategic importance of the Gulf nations. While the US would want the revival of a temporary agreement to send out a clear message, that stability in the Middle East is high on its list of priorities. Iran’s economy is facing several challenges and the removal of some sanctions will do it no harm.
[Photo by Goldsztajn, via Wikimedia Commons]
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author.
Tridivesh Singh Maini is a New Delhi based analyst interested in Punjab-Punjab linkages as well as Partition Studies. Maini co-authored ‘Humanity Amidst Insanity: Hope During and After the Indo-Pak Partition’ (New Delhi: UBSPD, 2008) with Tahir Malik and Ali Farooq Malik. He can be reached at [email protected].
