The United States possesses reliable information that China is considering providing military assistance to the Russians. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said this after talks with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in Munich. The U.S. has warned them that this will lead to a “serious problem” in their relations. On the contrary, Wang argued that China had neither been an idle spectator nor thrown oil on the fire in Ukraine. He also announced that they would present a proposal to settle the war in Ukraine based on the principles of the UN Charter. “But some forces do not seem to want a quick end to the war, they have other interests.” This was a sneer directed at the Americans.
Since the ‘balloon incident,’ relations between China and the U.S. significantly deteriorated. They were not at an all-time high anyway. The U.S. fears the Chinese are trying to take over its position as a global superpower. They compete with the Americans in many areas. Economically, politically and militarily. The chip war is one of the ways they compete economically. Both are trying to spread their political ideology as far as possible. China tries to narrow the gap against the U.S. with military spending. Both are trying to militarize areas around the world. America has bases worldwide, and they are trying to bring their military realm around China as well (like in the Philippines recently). The Chinese have also done this in Africa and their neighboring countries. China has long sought to take a neutral position in the Russo-Ukrainian war and not attempt to interfere. Given its deteriorating relations with the Americans and the West, its position and involvement in the war may soon change. Stoltenberg stated that we must not make the same mistake with China as we did with Russia. This is a clear allusion to China’s desire to capture Taiwan. Xi Jin Ping makes no secret here that he would like to do that. He even said so publicly in his speech on his third term appointment as General Secretary of the Communist Party about their goals.
South Africa confirmed joint military drills with Chinese and Russian forces. That did not fall in with good nature in the West, especially since the war almost reached the symbolic one-year mark. That Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor spoke in January about an exercise “with friends,” side by side with her Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov, also did not fall into good ground. However, political ties with the Kremlin go way back. Both the Soviet Union and China provided political and military assistance to the ANC party in its fight against apartheid. Much high-ranking military personnel received their training in the Soviet Union as a result of that shared history. President Cyril Ramaphosa’s ANC can also count on hefty donations from Russia. A South African mining company owned by Russian Viktor Vekselberg donated half a million euros to the party in early 2021. There are even claims that during the 2019 elections, the infamous Wagner militias spread false information against the main opposition party of the ANC. Russia has long been waging a charm offensive in Africa, clearly tapping into an anti-imperialist sentiment. Last month, despite international sanctions, a Russian cargo ship docked in Cape Town to deliver ammunition. The longer the war carries on, the harder it will be for some countries to stay neutral.
US Vice President Kamala Harris proclaims that the U.S. has now formally established that Russia has committed crimes against humanity. “The evidence is there.” But numerous speakers from the ‘global South’ speak in Munich about other priorities, whether they are among the 140 countries that condemned Russia at the United Nations. They speak of energy prices, food security, and climate disasters that engulf them while they emit no CO2. That clarifies again how the geopolitical cards are in play. European problems are no longer world problems. Non-Western countries have their own problems that they have to face. “I am impressed by how much we are losing the confidence of the global South,” Macron says. The future is already here, Scholz realizes. He speaks of “a last chance” to convince countries in Asia, Africa, and South America that the rules of the international order also offer them opportunities and protect them. “In 2050, there will be countless great, strong countries in those continents that will not let themselves be lectured,” he says.
Should China, due to its deteriorating relationship with the West, begin assisting Russia with military aid in Ukraine, a new kind of escalation will ensue. The economic consequences will be indisputably severe. The Americans have already hinted at sanctions. China could also respond to this with sanctions. Then we will be in a trade war, where particularly the Europeans will suffer again. And what if several countries were to follow? Will the West shy away from escalation and start talks? Or will the West fight fire with fire and escalate as well? Europe must make it clear to the United States from a strategic perspective that it should not push China too much toward Russia. We must try to keep countries, which are now neutral, to remain neutral at all costs. We are already in an emerging Cold War, but this would add to the creation of two camps with different kinds of ideologies. It’s of grave danger to get into some sort of escalation trend with which, as UN Secretary Guterres said, we are entering a world war with our eyes open.
Wang Yi reiterated the absolute taboo on the use of nuclear weapons. But his charm offensive toward Europe, laced with fierce criticism of the U.S., garners skepticism. They called it an attempt to drive a wedge between the allies. He recently also met and had talks with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov. At a higher diplomatic level, Xi and Putin will very likely also meet soon. Politicians in Japan, South Korea, and NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg warned that if Russia wins in Ukraine, it will establish a dangerous precedent for East Asia. Wang Yi is not responding to a request to confirm that China will not take military action against Taiwan soon. If the Chinese and others think neutrality is no longer beneficial, we have a problem.
[Photo by Vitaliy Ragulin, via Wikimedia Commons]
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author.
Alerio Omari is a Belgian Political Science student. He is interested in geopolitical problems.
