The geopolitics of the Middle East has witnessed some significant developments in recent years. The first is the normalisation of ties between Arab States, including two Gulf countries – United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain, with Israel in 2020 via the Abraham accords brokered by the US. Second, the strengthening of ties between the GCC countries — especially Saudi Arabia and UAE with China. Third, the resumption of ties between Qatar and four Arab states — Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt in 2021. These states had cut ties with Qatar in 2017. First, they alleged that Qatar abetted terrorism and second, they were uncomfortable with Qatar’s proximity with Iran.
Finally, the agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, signed in March 2023, for normalization of ties, which has the potential to have a strong impact not just on the geopolitics of the Middle East, but well beyond.
While a lot of commentators and analysts have understandably focused on the US-China rivalry in the Middle East, especially the Gulf, it is important to bear a few things in mind.
First, in spite of expressing some reservations with regard to the Iran-Saudi agreement, the US did say that it would welcome any development which helps in stabilizing the region and resolving the conflicts in Yemen and Syria. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken while commenting on the agreement said: “anything that can help reduce tensions, avoid conflict, and curb in any way dangerous or destabilizing actions by Iran is a good thing… if this agreement actually bears out, and particularly if Iran follows through on the commitments that it’s apparently made, again, that would be positive.”
Second, in spite of Iran’s virulent anti-US public posturing it has been engaged with the US in back channel negotiations for the revival of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action JCPOA/Iran Nuclear deal. In May 2023, senior Iranian and US officials held indirect talks in Oman.
Amidst several developments in the Middle East, one of the interesting ones was the resumption of diplomatic ties between Qatar and other Arab states in 2021 as discussed earlier. While one of the causes for Arab states disrupting ties with Qatar was its close ties with Iran, not just Saudi Arabia but even UAE has been seeking to improve relations with Iran. Earlier this month, while the Foreign Minister of Saudi Arabia Prince Faisal bin Farhan visited Tehran, Iran’s Foreign Minister also undertook a visit of the GCC member states including Qatar and UAE.
For long, the Middle East was viewed with simplistic binaries, first it was Israel vs. Arab states, in recent years Iran vs GCC states and Israel. The signing of the Abraham accords and more recently the Saudi-Iran agreement as well as steps taken by other Gulf states to improve ties with Iran have made it impossible for viewing the region from such simplistic prisms.
Why a balanced foreign policy is essential for Gulf States
One thing which is clear is that the Gulf States especially UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar are no longer satisfied with economic growth based on old paradigms. All these countries have come up with long term visions for their respective countries and have sought to reduce their dependence upon oil. To fulfil their long term economic objectives, they need to have flexible foreign policy as well stability in the region.
For fulfilling the Vision 2030, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) needs to have good relations with China, but also with the West – especially the US. The importance of the Saudi-US economic relationship is evident from heavy Saudi investment into the US start-up sector and days after the signing of the Iran-Saudi deal, Saudi Arabia placed an order for the purchase of 121 aircraft (the deal was estimated at $37 billion). Despite his controversial record on human rights, MBS has been lauded by the West for his economic vision as well as certain social reforms, such as allowing women to drive. During the visit of the Saudi Crown Prince to France, earlier this month, French President Immanuel Macron said that his country was willing to back the country’s “ambitious Vision 2030”.
The UAE like Saudi Arabia while focusing on its economic objectives has also been seeking to follow a balanced foreign policy while articulating itself on key global geopolitical, economic and environmental issues.
The pragmatic and balanced foreign policy approach of UAE and Saudi Arabia is important for resolving crises in the Middle East, and makes them important on the global stage. Saudi Arabia’s relevance for France for instance is not restricted to bilateral ties, but also needs to be seen in the context of funding green initiatives. Similarly, UAE along with India and France is part of a trilateral where they are cooperating on several global issues. Apart from economics and geopolitics, Gulf countries, especially Saudi Arabia are also focusing on ‘soft power’ this is restricted not just to hosting mega events and promoting sports like Golf or football or attracting tourists but also attracting talented expats. While UAE has introduced Golden, Green Visas with an eye on drawing not just investors but also professionals and talented individuals, Saudi Arabia is also likely to follow suit.
The geopolitical landscape of the Middle East can not be understood merely from the binaries of US-China rivalry, but the economic priorities and visions of the Gulf States and Iran’s attempts to come out of the isolation which it has faced in the aftermath of the US withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018.
[Photo by Mehr News Agency, via Wikimedia Commons]
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author.
Tridivesh Singh Maini is a New Delhi based analyst interested in Punjab-Punjab linkages as well as Partition Studies. Maini co-authored ‘Humanity Amidst Insanity: Hope During and After the Indo-Pak Partition’ (New Delhi: UBSPD, 2008) with Tahir Malik and Ali Farooq Malik. He can be reached at [email protected].
