The Russia-Ukraine war has turned into a protracted conflict having started a year back and with no end in sight. Amidst this long-stretched conflict, multiple new actors and equations have emerged. The increased bilateral military ties between Russia and Iran particularly in the backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine War is one such example.
The first evidence of this military cooperation came when some images of the remains of Iranian kamikaze drones or the Shahed-136 shot down by Ukrainian forces started getting circulated on social media in September 2022. Since then, Iran has been said to have supplied three types of drones to Russia, namely, Shahed-136, Shahed-131 and Mohajer-6. Russia buying these drones from Iran is seen as an action taken by the former to fill up its dwindling stockpiles of long-range missiles. The Shahed-136 specifically, is said to be around 440 pounds, 12 feet long with an 8-foot wingspan with the potential to hit targets with high precision from a long range. Apart from their capability to fly hundreds of miles and accuracy in targets, their cost-effectiveness also has made them favorable for Russia in its attack against Ukraine. An Iranian drone costs $20,000 to $50,000 but drains twice as much of the resources of the adversary to counter its attack. This cost-effectiveness of Iranian drones is a result of decades of sanctions and Iran’s quest to build its capabilities despite them, thus covertly procuring technology and components from Western countries. Most of these West-made components used in the drones are dual-use in nature thus making it difficult for the US and Europe to block their supplies.
These military ties, however, are not just beneficial to Russia but hold equal benefits for Iran as well. The drone supply to Russia has provided Iran with a platform to test the capabilities of its drones in real-time war against some of the most sophisticated weapons supplied by the West. The use of Iranian drones to this extent has also put them in a limelight, thus further increasing Iran’s potential to increase the demand base for its defense equipment. These military ties are further strengthening, with Russia agreeing to supply air defense systems, missile systems and helicopters to Iran. According to Iranian media, the country will receive a supply of 24 Russian Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets by the end of March this year. The Su-35, considered to be 4.5 generation fighter, is believed to be able to compete with the F-15 and F-16 4th and 4.5-generation fighters. It will also act as an upgrade to Iran’s aerial fleet.
This deal over fighter jets is the most recent example of Iran and Russia’s deepening military relations. These ties have made the US State Department label Iran as Russia’s top military backer. The growing Russia-Iran cooperation has not just created problems for the US in terms of the Russia-Ukraine crisis but has also further threatened its influence over the Middle Eastern region. This can be seen in the stance taken by the Middle Eastern countries.
The Gulf states view the Russia-Ukraine war as European crisis. In response to Russia’s invasion, the Gulf and Turkey attempted to maintain a “balanced” stance. Even though several Middle Eastern states have been steadfast US allies, apart from Kuwait, none of them have joined the US in harshly denouncing Russia or imposing crippling sanctions on its economy. However, at the same time, a UNGA resolution condemning the invasion and seeking that Moscow withdraws its military presence was approved by Bahrain, Egypt, Kuwait, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. Israel, Kuwait, Qatar, and Turkey are the four regional nations that cosponsored the UNGA resolution.
There has been a lack of support for the US by some of the states in the Middle Eastern region. However, distancing from the US has been a gradual process. The position of US as a security provider has plummeted to new lows as some of the states in the region are strengthening their political, energy, economic, and logistical ties with Russia and China. Biden, throughout his presidential campaign had a negative attitude towards Saudi Arabia and its crown prince. Since 2016, through the “OPEC +” alliance Russia and Saudi Arabia have been partners to manage the supply of oil on the global market. Israel considered Russia as the only player capable of preventing Iran and Hezbollah’s presence at its northern border with Syria. Other motivating factors for these engagements, besides the potential US withdrawal from the region, include the diminished concern among Gulf leaders and Egypt over political Islam and the requirement to take a fresh approach to the Syrian and Libyan conflicts, which have reached a military impasse.
Despite other states in the region forging ties with Russia, Tehran is strengthening its political, economic, and security ties with Moscow. Iran’s kamikaze drones have now been used by Russia, and it poses a long-term security threat to the European continent. This is a result of the West’s oversight on the proliferation of Iran’s “conventional” weapons, as opposed to its nuclear goals. Closer ties between Moscow and Tehran might lead to the conflict in Ukraine escalate further, as Iran gives Russia military aid and resources. If the Russian government provides the heavily sanctioned Iran with advanced military technology and weapons, it may also pose a serious threat to American allies in the region who oppose Iran.
[Photo by Khamenei.ir, via Wikimedia Commons]
*Mohaimeen Khan is a postgraduate scholar at the Department of Geopolitics and International Relations, Manipal Academy of Higher Education.
*Brahmneet Kaur Narula is a postgraduate scholar at the Department of Geopolitics and International Relations, Manipal Academy of Higher Education. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors.
