In the intricate web of geopolitics, where tensions often overshadow cooperation, a surprising development has unfolded, captivating the world’s attention. The United States, long known for its hardline approach towards Iran, is undergoing a remarkable transformation in its stance, setting the stage for potential diplomatic breakthroughs. For decades, the relationship between the United States and Iran has been marked by strained diplomacy, economic sanctions, and bitter rhetoric. However, against all expectations, a paradigm shift is underway, heralding a new era of dialogue and reconciliation. The United States, known for its formidable role in global affairs, is demonstrating a willingness to explore diplomatic avenues, seeking to defuse tensions that have long plagued the Middle East region.
In order to reduce tensions in the region, U.S. and Iranian officials have primarily been negotiating behind closed doors. Topics of discussion have included Tehran’s nuclear program and the release of American captives. But it’s important to remember that starting in the late 1970s, the United States put Iran under economic pressure. The most substantial and extensive economic sanctions, nevertheless, were just recently put into place. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), popularly known as the Iran nuclear agreement, was terminated by the US government in 2018, and sanctions against Iran were subsequently reinstituted. The goal of these sanctions was to put pressure on the Iranian government to alter the position it takes on its nuclear program, its support for militant groups, and issues relating to human rights. Sanctions were directed against several sectors, including Iran’s oil industry, financial institutions, and trade activities.
The United States is having complications coping with Iran’s rapid uranium enrichment activity since 2019. At the underground Natanz nuclear site, Iran was rapidly boosting its uranium enrichment capability using cutting-edge centrifuges to further its nuclear program. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) at that time unveiled a confidential draft report on Iran’s nuclear program. Iran’s first-generation (IR-1) centrifuges are acknowledged to be much inferior to those used at the underground Natanz and Fardo nuclear complexes. The cutting-edge IR-6 centrifuges installed at Natanz have reportedly begun operating, per the IAEA draft report. Diplomats claim that Iran’s IR-6 centrifuge is the most sophisticated one in its history.
Iran isn’t going to be allowed to stockpile more than 60% of the uranium it requires for its nuclear program under the terms of the new interim agreement. Because uranium is required to create nuclear bombs in amounts greater than 90%. This initiative of the United States is to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear program. All Iranian nuclear facilities must grant access to IAEA inspectors in order to assess the uranium reserves present. The US further insists that Iran refrain from forming any group to conduct lethal assaults against US contractors in Syria and Iraq.
Iran maintains ties with nations or armed groups that are antithetical to the US to lessen US military dominance. Tehran supports these groups with arms, instruction, funding, and, in certain circumstances, direction. Iran and Russia have a solid relationship as a consequence of this. As a result, in exchange for Tehran supplying weaponry for the conflict in Ukraine, Russia is currently offering Iran an unparalleled amount of military and technological support. The two countries relationship is evolving into “a full-fledged defense partnership,” with the exchange of military expertise and equipment going both ways. Russia may be giving Iran modern weapons of warfare, such as helicopters and air defense systems. Iranian pilots received Sukhoi Su-35 flight training in Russia in the spring, which according to the officials suggests Iran may start receiving the aircraft within the next year. Besides, Iranian drones have long been employed by Russia to terrify Ukrainians and strike Kyiv. Along with Shahed-136 kamikazes and Mohajer-6 drones, Iran is purportedly supplying hundreds of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to Russia for use throughout Ukraine. Meanwhile, U.S. intelligence officials now suspect that a drone manufacturing facility is being established with Iranian assistance in the Yelabuga (Alabuga) Special Economic Zone, several hundred miles east of Moscow. Because of this, Iranian officials claimed to the media that the US had also requested that Iran cease the supply of ballistic missiles to Russia.
Through Oman’s mediation, a Gulf Arab nation, there were indirect talks between the two nations. For Iran, the recent agreement between the US and Iran allowing Iran to receive unpaid debts from Iraq was a welcome development; yet, for the US, it only represented a hazardous pattern of not confronting Tehran’s nuclear advancements. Iran insists that the U.S. refrain from enacting harsher sanctions that would cripple its economy. The U.S. has mainly called on Iran to curtail its nuclear program. The US military won’t be able to halt any tankers carrying oil for them in the state of Gibraltar. The new agreement mandates that Iran refrain from implementing any new sanctions on its nuclear program through the UN or IAEA, even though the United States has long put Iran under intense pressure via those institutions.
But it’s puzzling that the US is now making efforts to mend fences with Iran. The way Biden is in such a terrible predicament is becoming to be too much for the United States to take, even while they are at war with Russia over their allies. To manage the situation in Ukraine for the time being, the Biden administration is doing so. The war between Ukraine and Russia has also had a big inflationary impact on the US economy. As a result of the warfare, expenses for businesses and consumers have grown. It has also disrupted international supply lines and created uncertainty in the financial markets. To address all these issues, the US is working to at least slightly restrain Iran’s actions, which pose a threat to the country. Apart from that, the US may be covertly attempting to reach such a settlement so that Iran does not engage in any form of war with its US allies. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vehemently denounced the US deal with Iran even though Israel did not approve of it in the least.
There are encouraging signals of an emerging dynamic between the two countries, despite the disagreements and tensions that have long characterized the relations between Iran and the United States. Although it may seem paradoxical to recommend a short-term agreement as a fix, it could prove to be a crucial step in defusing the situation and establishing the groundwork for a stronger connection. It is crucial to recognize that fostering positive relations between Iran and the United States won’t be simple given their complicated past and different interests. However, the two countries may progressively close the gap and foster a more stable and peaceful environment by taking little effort and concentrating on quickly attainable goals.
[Photo by Sonia Sevilla, via Wikimedia Commons]
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author.
S.M. Sayem is a Dhaka-based foreign policy analyst who expertly combines sharp analysis with deep insights. With a trail of brilliance, his writings grace esteemed platforms like The Geopolitics, The Policy Digest, The Daily Observer, and Modern Diplomacy.
