Ever since the conclusion of a long decade civil war, Sri Lanka constantly remains on the close radar of international communities. In this context, India and the US’s role cannot be ignored. Now once again it has captured global attention by turning bankrupt from a middle-income country. Eminent intellectuals, experts, scholars and Journalists from different parts of the world interpret the current crisis differently. Such interpretation has shaped the diverse narratives of the political and economic crisis. The majority blames China’s debt trap policy. In Sri Lanka, China is one of the largest bilateral creditors accountable for about 20 per cent of Sri Lanka’s total debt. These loans were largely used for making economically nonviable projects seen as one of the major factors leading to economic collapse and creating scope for “debt-trap diplomacy” allegations. Disregarding such allegations, China deepened its engagement with the island nation through huge investments in various projects, particularly maritime infrastructure.
The people of Sri Lanka held Rajapaksas responsible for their current fate. The Rajapaksas are alleged of malpractice, massive corruption, misgovernance, and misuse of the government budget and public funds. Further, the ineffective policy decisions made under their regime pushed the country to the verge of collapse. However, the China-India contest in Sri Lanka remains much interesting for journalists, columnists and diplomats based in the city of Colombo. The changing geoeconomics and geopolitics make China’s role inevitable in Sri Lanka. However, India and the United States keep a close observation of new developments and Beijing’s recent moves in the island nation. India’s extreme influence in Sri Lanka’s domestic politics, concern over the Tamil minority’s issues, human rights violations and constant pressure for implementation of the 13th Amendment cause serious setbacks. China, on the other hand, remains unengaged in the internal politics of Sri Lanka and emphasizes economic relations, extending the political and strategic arena.
China’s Contrary Approach
According to the US-China Economic and Security Review, annual report 2022, China’s financing of a strategically located island close to India was one of the key findings. Further, the report analyses the unrest that emerged in Sri Lanka from taking sizable loans from China, yet, no concern was shown over Sri Lanka’s strategic vulnerability to China. In fact, stated China is yet to convert its economic relations into political and security objectives. On the contrary, China enjoys substantial domestic political influence among Sri Lankan political parties.
China has conveniently shifted the blame to the borrower rather than the creditor. It’s true that Sri Lanka can be held responsible for the depletion of its foreign exchange reserves and long-term economic mismanagement, unsustainable project proposals and borrowings. But, the fact of adopting populist policies and economic mismanagement of successive governments is not avoidable. Two of these factors are closely related and China’s role in the crisis is implicit. Undoubtedly, uninterrupted supply of arms and weapons, standing in defence of Rajapaksas against human rights violations unlike Western countries and India’s dilemma over the war crimes and Tamil question paved the way for China in Sri Lanka. It also became a new partner and an alternative to balance the West and India (Shivamurthy, 2022).
Abeyagoonasekera (2022) argues that China intends to become a leading financier of the Global South to reduce the domination of the North. It also aims to change the power imbalance by becoming an alternative power and leading the Global South with the GDI. To regain China’s lost image in post-crisis Sri Lanka, there is a plan to implement the GDI in the country. After the flagship project of BRI, Chinese President, Xi Jinping unveiled the Global Development Initiative (GDI), at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in September 2021.
The origin of the crisis in Sri Lanka has created uncertainty towards economic and political stability since it may have severe geopolitical repercussions on South Asian countries and particularly in India. In this context, the rising importance of the Indian Ocean in the global economy that has increased Sri Lanka’s centrality in international geopolitics. Realizing this fact, Sri Lanka attempts to mollify its relations with India and the US on one side and China on the other.
From India’s viewpoint, Sri Lanka’s financial dependence on Beijing can greatly bolster Chinese leverage which is likely to turn massive use of Sri Lankan infrastructure for strategic-military purposes. The recent docking of the Chinese navy’s scientific ship Yuan Wang 5 in Hambantota port and the allegations of Sri Lankan tankers providing mid-sea logistical support to Chinese naval ships can be taken as an example. The geopolitical rivalry between India-China, and India’s aspiration of becoming a key security provider in the region, compel New Delhi to strengthen its developmental and humanitarian engagements in Sri Lanka.
However, Sri Lanka cannot afford antagonize India at this moment. For Sri Lanka’s economic recovery, India’s role is crucial as a major creditor along with China and Japan. India’s role in determining political stability in Sri Lanka also cannot be undermined as far as the Tamil national question and President Ranil Wickremasinghe’s position are concerned. On the other hand, China’s role becoming inevitable which is once again emerging as one of the major money lending countries in post crisis. Therefore, while considering India’s geopolitical concern what choices Sri Lanka makes to balance both India and China remain to be watched.
[Photo by AntanO, via Wikimedia Commons]
Dr Anjani Devi, ICSSR Post Doctoral Fellow at International Strategic and Security Studies Programme (ISSSP), National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bangalore, India.The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author.
