Canada has been in Trump’s focus since his first term (2017-2021), as evidenced by the imposition of high taxes on Canadian steel and aluminum products and tormenting Canada to make it a part of the US state (though not that strongly). While in his second term, he has become more direct and assertive. From his campaigning days only, Trump kept on reiterating about making Canada the US’s 51st state. During a series of calls with the former prime minister of Canada, Justin Trudeau in February this year, Trump highlighted the problems the US economy is facing while trading with Canada. He said that the tariff barrier that Canada imposes on US goods is quite high (standing at 25%) and on some particular products it is further higher,e.g. US dairy products face a higher tariff ranging from 250% to 390%. This, according to Trump, is highly unfair and unjust. He countered this by imposing equally high tariffs i.e. 25% additional tariff on Canadian goods.
Canada relies heavily on US markets, 75% of its exports go to the US. For example, Canada’s top exports to the US include energy products and vehicles, coupled with nearly $40 billion in exports of agricultural items, including baked goods, cereals etc. The new tariffs have unsettled the Canadians. They fear that the destabilization of its economy would aid the White House in conquering Canada. Apart from this trade war, the tension between the two countries is also reflected in the Arctic region.
The Arctic region is blessed with abundant natural resources and minerals which have become easily accessible and exploitable due to the melting of ice. The latter has also aided in making maritime trade routes such as NSR, Northwest passage etc. navigable which in turn has made this region a next geopolitical battlefield. The Northwest Passage, which is the commercial artery connecting the Pacific to the Atlantic, has become a bone of contention between Washington and Ottawa. While the US maintains that this should be treated as an international strait, Canada declares it as their domestic waters by bolstering its Arctic defenses to ensure national security and prevent US or other forces from controlling its northern waterways. Such differences in opinion between the US and Canada dragged them into a rat race of strengthening their positions and establishing their dominance in the region.
The US presence in the Arctic region is through Alaska which is 20% of US total landmass, apparently smaller in territory share and population than Canada. About 70% of Canadian landmass and over 70% of its coastline are within the Arctic region. The US views access to untapped resources as essential to remain strategically relevant in the Arctic. The intersection of trade dispute and resource competition has contributed to a growing perception that annexing Canada could be a strategic solution for the US’ woes.
Canada’s Response: Advancing in the Arctic
Canada also retaliated to Trump’s continuous verbal attacks and warnings. Mark Carney, Canada’s newly elected prime minister and the country’s opposition leader, Pierre Poilievre, visited Iqaluit recently, a municipality in Nunavut. The latter is an Inuit governed territory with around 40,000 Inuit populations and rich in different kinds of minerals such as gold, nickel copper, diamond, petroleum reserves and natural gas etc. For example, up to 400,000 ounces of gold is produced annually at the Hope Bay site in Nunavut, according to Canadian gold producer Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. Moreover, the country’s 30% of petroleum reserves are also found in the region. According to the Fraser Institute’s annual assessment of mining businesses conducted in 2023, Yukon’s mineral endowment places it among the top 10 regions globally. The value of the unexplored northern bonanza in Canada might start in the trillions.
The leaders’ stop in Nunavut was a way of signalling to the US about Ottawa’s sovereignty claims over the Arctic. During the visit, they emphasized the need for excellent infrastructure, improved Inuit relations with the Canadian government, more military expenditure, energy improvements, decent housing, and enhancing Canada’s capacity to tap the North’s economic potential, regardless of their party affiliation. Ottawa has begun constructing deepwater ports, roads, mines, electricity grids, fibre-optic networks, and naval sites in Nunavut. These developments are Canada’s strategic moves towards protecting its sovereign rights over its Arctic region, including Nunavut. The visit was also a part of realignment of Nunavut to Canada’s developmental plans which was not much into consideration by the government earlier.
Trump’s attack on Canada through the trade war and threatening to make it as the 51st state is intensifying the tension between the two countries, involving the disputes over claims in the Arctic region as well. Trump’s quest to ‘Make America Great Again’ through his policy of economic and territorial expansion either by force or by purchase may start another round of colonization in the world, which would not be conducive in maintaining world peace. Such ambitions suggest the US’s desire to redraw the global order to consolidate American supremacy. This revivalism of expansionist rhetoric under Trump’s leadership signals a departure from the multilateral diplomacy that has characterized much of post–World War II international relations. Canada, on its part, is also pushing back US attacks through emphasising on its sovereign stakes in the Arctic and imposing reciprocal high tariffs.
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Medha Bhardwaj is pursuing a PhD in Arctic geopolitics from Jawaharlal Nehru University. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author.
