The informal engagement between the US, India, Japan and Australia to address the 2004 Boxing Day Tsunami resulted in the establishment of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue or QUAD in 2007. Since then, the security dynamics of the Indo-Pacific region changed due to the rise of China and the formation of QUAD was seen as a framework to counter the Chinese threat. With the coinage of Indo-Pacific vis-à-vis Asia-Pacific in 2007 and China’s object who argues it threatens and confines China in its neighbourhood, the relevance of the Indo-Pacific region has increased. To address the threat emanating from Chinese behaviour and China’s BRI, QUAD was revived during the 2017 ASEAN Summit in Manila to ensure the Indo-Pacific region remains free and open for all. Despite how QUAD members view the Indo-Pacific region and China – Australia withdrew from the group under PM Kevin Rudd in 2008 – since 2017, the group has kept its flexibility of loose coalition intact and began to coordinate and align under its working groups structure on various agenda.
Why Indo-Pacific and QUAD Strategy needed in the first place?
Acceptance of the Indo-Pacific concept against Asia-Pacific during the 2019 Shangri La Dialogue – was a watershed moment – it became part of foreign policy and effectively defined the development taking place in the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean region. As the Indo-Pacific concept traced its origin to Karl Haushofer’s 1939 work the ‘Deutsche Kulturpolitik im Indopazifischen Raum’. In the 21st century, it was coined by the Japanese PM Shinzo Abe in 2007, who saw it as the ‘Confluence of the Two Seas’, which bring freedom and prosperity to these two oceans. Since 2007 regional powers like India, Australia, Japan, the ASEAN, and outside powers like the US and the European Union developed vision and outlook to define how they look at the Indo-Pacific region vis-à-vis to address the Chinese threat.
Further, the acceptance of the Indo-Pacific region vis-à-vis the Asia-Pacific illustrate it was able to assist other countries to define their emerging geographical challenges and address the security concerns they face due to China’s rise. To address the damage caused by the 2004 Boxing Day Tsunami, India, Japan, Australia and the US came together, which transformed an idea into a new framework which led to the formation of Quadrilateral Security Dialogue or QUAD in 2007. Growing economic linkages between Europe and East Asia and strategic relevance and free access to the Indian Ocean region against China’s growing involvement in the Indo-Pacific region revived QUAD in 2017. QUAD being a multilateral security framework and the Malabar Exercise at its core, the recent approval of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework – China sees QUAD as Economic NATO – strengthened QUAD’s position to counter China economically in Asia.
Role of QUAD in the Indo-Pacific Region’s dynamic security structure
The Indo-Pacific region stretch from the West Coast of North America to the East Coast of Africa and covers strategic geo-location and regions like Southeast Asia and Malacca Strait and rising powers including China, India and the ASEAN. China’s assertiveness, construction, and fortification of disputed islands in the South China Sea from 2012 onwards and the ADIZ in the East China Sea in 2013 transformed Southeast Asia, and Indo-Pacific Region became a centre of geopolitical rivalry between the US and China. Further, the rise of Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013, who oversaw the preparation of the 2008 Beijing Olympics and the construction of artificial islands in the South China Sea, his subsequent control over the CCP transformed China’s peaceful development to be assertive in its outlook.
The launch of China’s BRI in 2013 under President Xi Jinping’s Chinese Dream project expanded China’s economic influence and reach and strengthened its global power. Assisted by BRI, it expands China’s reach worldwide as reflected in the Pacific Island countries, Africa, Latin America, and the difference among EU members over how to view China and its dominance in the Middle East vis-à-vis Uyghurs issue. In such a situation, QUAD has come a long way since 2007, and its members have overcome their differences concerning QUAD and are aligned to address China’s issue through a constructive cooperation agenda. On the other hand, as QUAD strengthened its member’s reach, influence and global position, China viewed the group as a move to establish Asian NATO and undermine peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region – prefer this over the Indo-Pacific region.
As China viewed QUAD ‘a 100 per cent outdated Cold War mentality’, its relations with the US continued to deteriorate under the Biden administration. China’s ties with other QUAD members have become tense, as line differentiating between bilateral issues and global geopolitical issues have overlapped, which was visible in the Galwan Valley, Covid-19 origin and the BRI Debt Diplomacy. Therefore, to counter China’s influence, QUAD adopted military options and agreed to cooperate in areas including health (Vaccine Diplomacy), emerging technologies like Artificial Intelligence, maritime domain awareness and address climate change issue. Such cooperation allows QUAD to address China’s intention to replicate its model of success in other countries and undermine the ability of democracy. Moreover, with growing tension with China, it allows QUAD members to have more agendas and areas of cooperation to balance China’s growing power in the Indo-Pacific region, and thus AUKUS and the establishment of the I2U2 only complement QUAD.
With the emergence of AUKUS and I2U2, QUAD’s Future in the Indo-Pacific Region
With the Indo-Pacific region being a vast territorial and maritime region, over the years, the US has established various security frameworks and alliance structures to secure its global power. Apart from the ‘Hub and Spoke System’ in the Pacific Ocean Region, the development of the AUKUS and the I2U2 in the West Indian Ocean (WIO) region showcase that they are being established to complement QUAD and strengthen the US Indo-Pacific strategy. As such group focus on strategic nuclear alliance (AUKUS), economic cooperation (I2U2) and the multi-dimensional strategic framework (QUAD) to counter China and strengthen the US presence and alliance structure. Apart from China’s action in the South China Sea region, relations with Taiwan, India, Australia and Japan and establishment of overseas military bases in Djibouti, China invested in strategic projects under BRI, which made the Chinese threat pertinent.
Considering such a situation and initiative taken in the Indo-Pacific Region, it raises what will be the future of QUAD in the region. As the acceptance of the Indo-Pacific Region worldwide strengthens the US global position, the formation of QUAD, AUKUS, and I2U2 allow India, Japan, Australia, Israel, the UK and the UAE to play a greater role and give the US an edge against China who lacks ally. As China’s broader international goals have become evident over the years, many countries have expressed concerns regarding China’s action. The QUAD Plus initiative reflects such a scenario that allows other countries to express their concerns. Further, the EU ‘Strategy for Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific’ and involvement of the UK in the region under AUKUS strengthen QUAD. As Indo-Pacific Region occupies geo-strategic relevance, free and open access to the region has become a top priority vis-à-vis concerns raised regarding China’s behaviour which made QUAD prominent today and in the future.
As QUAD is view as a future architect of the Indo-Pacific Region, China, on the other hand, to secure its global interest began to shift the balance of power in its favour under BRI which only alarmed QUAD. Countries concerned with Chinese behaviour can’t challenge it on a bilateral level; thus, the role of QUAD will increase in future. For a long time, QUAD maintained a flexible nature and saw it as an asset to counter China, and its Working Groups structure made deeper integration and cooperation among its members. As QUAD’s agenda has expanded over the years and include the ‘Indo-Pacific Partnership on Maritime Domain Awareness’, such agendas allow QUAD members to align their approaches and better coordinate on various agendas and counter Chinese threats effectively. Thus, it’s a long way to go for QUAD, and with deeper cooperation and alignment between QUAD members, its institutional challenges will resolve and deliver on its agenda and coordinated effectively in large forums like the UN and WTO.
Since its inception, QUAD has come a long way and maintains the flexibility of a loose coalition to deliver and expand its agenda and become delivery oriented. Although QUAD’s fundamental aspect is to maintain the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific region and ensure China acts responsibly at the global politics and affairs. On the other hand, QUAD continues to see as a group of like-minded democracies rather than formalising a military alliance. Thus, QUAD’s current outlook will remain the same in the future, and structural changes and outlook will change the way the QUAD 2.0 emerged due to external factors. Meanwhile, the future of QUAD remains prominent, and thus the formation of AUKUS and I2U2 allows QUAD greater flexibility to counter China and ensure peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific Region.
[Photo by U.S. Navy]
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author.
Kashif Anwar is a Research Associate at the Centre for Air Power Studies, Delhi, India.
