On the evening of June 24, 2023 Indian armed forces conducted counter-insurgency operations in Manipur’s Imphal East district and apprehended twelve heavily armed militants affiliated to a proscribed Meitei ethnonationalist armed organization named KYKL (Kanglei Yawol Kanna Lup). However, the army operation was obstructed by a strong mob of around 1500 people belonging to the Meitei community and mostly comprised of women, led by a local political leader. Considering the sensitivity of the situation when ethnic tensions are simmering in Manipur, the Indian army decided to release all the apprehended militants. In another instance one month back on May 23, 2023, a fierce gunfight ensued between the Indian army and militants belonging to another banned armed outfit named PLA (People Liberation Army) in Kamjong district, Manipur. It is noted that the aforementioned groups are insurgent organizations with ethnonationalist aspirations and operating in the region for the past four decades. In recent times both these groups were involved in some high-profile attacks on the Indian military that claimed the lives of more than two dozen Indian military personnel. These are serious development in conflict strife regions like Manipur which is now suffering from a full-scale ethnic conflict between hill-based Kuki-Chin-Zomi tribes and valley based Meitei community. Several reports suggested the involvement of newly formed Meitei ultranationalist groups like Arambai Tenggol and Meitei Leepun in perpetrating large-scale violence against the Kuki-Chin-Zomi tribes population in the Meitei-dominated valley and adjacent areas. While, Meitei communities living along foothills and some hills areas alleged the involvement of heavily armed Kuki insurgent groups under suspension of operation (SoO) with the Government of India in the attack against their community.
There are over thirty non-state armed groups actively operating within Manipur’s state territory. Considering the present Manipur crisis which saw relentless violence that already cost more than 150 lives and over 50,000 internally displaced persons, involvement of more armed actors will further flare up the already fragile situation. Manipur has a history of both inter and intra-ethnic conflicts where armed insurgent groups were directly involved i.e. The Naga- Kuki conflict of the 1990s was fought between the largest Naga armed group Nationalist Socialist Council of Nagaland -Issac Muivah faction (NSCN-IM) and various rebel outfits from Manipur’s Kuki population. The cause of the conflict was the same as now, overlapping claims over land resources by each ethnicity and the presence of alternate versions of history over an imagined land. While, Zomi -Kuki conflict of 1997-98 was an intra-ethnic conflict over territorial control that was fought between Zomi Revolutionary Army (ZRA) and Kuki National Front (KNF). Hence, as a way forward this is important to understand the crucial role played by the non-state armed actors in Manipur across all ethnicities (Nagas, Kukis, Meiteis, Zomi). These groups are the key stakeholders in this ongoing conflict and are directly linked with the broader geopolitics involved which has the potential to destabilize the whole region.
Insurgent Groups Influence in the Region:
Manipur has experienced political turmoil since its integration into India in the year 1949. This led to the inception of armed insurgency against the Indian state. In order to suppress these secessionist aspirations Indian state declared Manipur as a disturbed area in the year 1958 and imposed judicial law like AFSPA (Armed Forces Special Powers Act) which provides legal impunity to the Indian security forces in regard to counter-insurgency violence. Such militarization of the society further facilitated various armed insurgent groups to sustain and adapt over the last four decades. All the armed groups in Manipur are based on ethnonationalism aspirations and can be divided into three major ethnic identities i.e. Naga, Kuki, and Meitei. NSCN-IM which is dominated by Manipuri Naga tribes aims to integrate all Naga inhabited territories into one political entity named ‘ Nagalim’. Secondly, Meitei-based armed groups want the secession of Manipur from India and consider the merger of Manipur into India as an act of forceful annexation. Thirdly, Kuki- Chin- Zomi armed groups want to create individual ethnic states of their own under Indian territory i.e. Zalé n-gam (Kukiland), Zogam (Land of Zo people). All these armed groups assert significant spatial control over their respective territory and run an illegal economy through taxation, extortion, and illicit trade. Hence, one can find a viable peaceful settlement in Manipur only by putting all the ethnic groups at one table which seems like a distant dream in the present context. In contrast, if the present conflict in Manipur stretches for a long time, then there are high chances of spillover, with a small provocation towards the Naga community that can embroil them into this conflict making the situation more complex and troubled. It is to note that Nagas controls the majority of geographical areas under Manipur and has a troubled relation with both Meitei and Kuki communities.
The present situation where state is experiencing a civil war condition, creating a security vacuum will provide opportunity to insurgent groups to further strengthen themselves. It will provide them with political motivation and popular support base based on their respective ethnic affiliation. It will help them in asserting their legitimacy, especially when state failed to protect their own citizens. Also, providing them opportunity to boost up their recruitment with the growing anguish among the population as many got displaced and lost their near and dear ones to this ongoing conflict. This will further complicate the already fragile situation with fears of reigniting a full-blown armed conflict resulting in more violence and human tragedy.
Geopolitics involved
Most of the insurgent groups that operate in Manipur have their bases in the neighboring Myanmar with whom the state of Manipur shares a 400 Km border, most of which is unfenced.
Over the years such porous borders helped these groups to launch guerilla styled cross border raids in Manipur. Myanmar’s Sagaing region, Chin state, and Magway state which lies along the Indo- Myanmar border are considered to be the stronghold of various Myanmar-based rebel groups and is also considered to be the safe haven for various armed groups from Northeast India. Being in the periphery of the Indian state, most of the ethnic communities living in Manipur share cultural similarities and kinship ties with those living in the Myanmar side i.e. Kuki chin tribes, Nagas, and Meitei. Hence, over the years armed groups of Manipur fostered a strong network with the rebel groups operating in Myanmar. Myanmar-based rebel groups helped them in procuring firepower, training, and logistics from the very start of the insurgency in Northeast India.
Now, the ongoing civil war in Myanmar where various rebel groups are involved in an armed conflict with the Myanmar Junta regime (Tatmadaw) has added complexity to the situation. Reports suggested about the bonhomie shared between Kuki Chin insurgent groups of Manipur and Myanmar-based rebels. i.e. Kuki National Army (KNA), the armed wing of the Kuki National Organization involvement with the Myanmar-based rebel group ‘People’s Defense Force (PDF) in the attack against the Myanmar military. Likewise, Manipur-based Meitei insurgent group like People Liberation Army (PLA) has been provided weapons and given shelter by Myanmar military regime to fight on their behalf against the Chin rebel groups of Myanmar. In retaliation PLA headquarter inside Myanmar was attacked by Chin National Army (CNA) incurring heavy losses on them. This transnational nature of the ongoing conflict in Myanmar and its spillover effect is an issue of concern for the security and stability of the Northeast region of India.
Apart from that there is larger geopolitics at play considering China’s links with armed groups of Northeast India and its growing economic and geostrategic influence over Myanmar’s junta regime. India is also trying its best to maintain a cordial relationship with the Myanmar junta regime keeping in consideration the large infrastructural investments and economic trade interests it has in Myanmar under its Act East policy. This might be the reason that Indian government-owned Bharat Electronic Limited (BEL) provided military equipment worth millions of US dollars to the Myanmar military Junta.
Such development which saw a proliferation of arms for both state and non-state armed actors in Myanmar can have immense geopolitical implications in an unruly frontier region like Manipur, that connects South Asia with South East Asia. The intertwined network between various nonstate armed groups across borders can awash the region with more weapons pertaining to more armed violence. If not attended in an urgent manner, these can destabilize the whole region.
[Imagine credit: Twitter/ MangteC]
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author.
Anurag Das is a researcher based in Guwahati, Assam. He is currently associated with Land Conflict Watch.org as a researcher covering the issues of land based resource conflicts in the state of Manipur.
