As the deadly earthquake hit Turkey and Syria on the of Feb. 6, countries from around the globe rushed in to provide aid. The aid came from allies and adversaries, including Greece, Qatar, Iran, Israel, the UAE, and India. The Kahramanmaras earthquake, as it is being called, left a terrible toll on human lives and infrastructure, including essential infrastructure in Southern Turkey and Northern Syria. However, less visible are the potential impacts that the disaster can have on the politics of Turkey. The geographical location of the damage done by the earthquake is particularly crucial to the recent interaction between Turkey and Syria. Again, the earthquake’s timing is critical in how it can potentially derail President Erdogan’s election campaign. This article aims to analyze the impacts of the Kahramanmaras Earthquake on Turkey’s anticipated engagement with the Assad government, and by extension, on its domestic politics.
Domestic Promises
Since the killing of a Turkish teenager by a Syrian immigrant in Ankara, the sentiment in the country has considerably become anti-immigration. Riots in several parts of Turkey followed the stabbing. The rising anti-immigrant sentiment has led political parties to campaign with an anti-immigration agenda for the upcoming elections in 2023. The opposition to President Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) has raised the tone of promises of cooperation with Syria’s Assad government, aiding the 3.6 million Syrian immigrants in returning to Syria.
The AKP government has, however, decided to walk a different way. The government indicated that renewed invasion, on the lines of Operation Peace Spring, of Syrian territories could take place. The official aim of this proposed offensive is, as declared by the government, to neutralize the Kurdish YPG forces in the region and establish infrastructure to resettle the Syrian refugees. The government has reached out to Syria’s Assad Regime, but the talks have not delivered any solid results yet.
The proposed steps go well with the rising sentiments among Turkish voters, who are ready to vote for any party that returns the Syrian immigrants to Syria. These immigrants are mostly the residents of Northern Syria, an area under rebel forces or the Syrian National Army (SNA) occupation. Turkey had welcomed them over the years to keep support among the Syrian opposition alive. But the possible deportation of the same refugees has sent dissatisfaction not only among the refugees but also among the various faction of Turkey-backed Syrian opposition.
The recent series of earthquakes have potentially delayed the government’s plans. Firstly, the affected areas of Turkey were to naturally act as the key provinces to provide logistics and support for Turkish operations in Northern Syria, as the Turkish-occupied territories there have always been governed by the provincial governments in Southern Turkey. With the earthquake destroying most infrastructure in these areas, the backbone of the proposed operation has been rattled. Secondly, the dissatisfaction regarding slow rescue efforts among the population in the Southern districts has already begun to show. Adverse weather conditions have slowed the rescue and relief work.
Possibility of cooperation
The delay in Erdogan’s proposed plans can disrupt his election campaign. The declining public approval for the President and the mounting attack from the opposition demands unprecedented action from him. Already, his anti-immigration promises did not seem convincing enough for Turkish voters. This is because the proposed operation could not have delivered desired results immediately and would have taken significant time. Moreover, the diplomatic effort to rope in the Assad government has proved to be incredibly enormous, given that neither side is willing to compromise in the Syrian civil war. On the one hand, Syria’s government has made it clear that any talks would be centred around the withdraw of Turkey from Syrian territories. On the other hand, Turkey is reluctant to withdraw support to the Syrian National Army. Additionally, the Syrian National Army and the Syrian Salvation Government (SSG) have also expressed discontent with their ally Turkey proposing talks with the Assad government.
However, the recent natural calamity can potentially bring about a transformation in these dynamics. The northern part of Syria has been the center of the ongoing conflict. The region has seen the devastating effects of war and absolutely lacks healthcare and relief infrastructure. The area is also out of bounds for foreign aid and rescue forces due to continuous shelling by Syrian and Russian forces. The opposition forces are not capable of carrying out rescue efforts. On the other hand, the Assad regime, too, is incapable of delivering relief since it does not control the region effectively. Such a scenario seems ripe for the Turkish government to mediate between the two, making rescue and relief efforts a reality. The potential for Turkey’s role increases even more as Russia, preoccupied with Ukraine, has provided Turkey with more space to engage in the conflict.
The location and timing of the earthquake have become crucial for, among other things, the politics of Turkey. The rising inflation and anti-immigrant sentiment have adversely affected President’s public approval. The slow relief work after the earthquake has only added to his unpopularity. Amidst these factors, a nationalist approach that involves a high-risk anti-Kurdish offensive on the border with Syria, along with repatriating millions of Arab and Turkmen refugees, serves his election campaign right by diverting the national discourse from the larger distress. However, President Erdogan will have to walk a tightrope balancing the Assad regime and the SNA allies, along with providing relief in the hard-hit southern provinces.
[Photo by VOA, via Wikimedia Commons]
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author.
Suyash Dwivedi is a final year Master’s student in International Studies at Christ (deemed to be) University. He has worked as a research intern at the Center for Air Power Studies (CAPS India).
