The United States appears to be on a mission to blow up alleged “narco-boats” in Venezuelan waters. In the last two weeks alone, two such vessels have been destroyed by the US navy with some fourteen casualties. The Trump Administration has defended such unilateral aggression as part of a move to rid the region of narco-terrorists.
At the same time, the Trump administration keeps the heat on the Venezuelan regime led by Nicolas Maduro, while accusing the latter of being the lynchpin in the hemispheric drugs trade. In fact, both President Donald Trump and the Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have indicated, US military operations are meant to destabilise the illegal regime of Nicolás Maduro.
However, the ongoing naval adventure is aimed at addressing a larger geostrategic deficit that the United States faces vis a vis Venezuela. The current operations against the drug cartels and “narco-terrorists” in the region, is an indirect attempt at reducing the growing influence of China in Venezuela.
All weather allies
China is Venezuela’s biggest trading partner. Owing to the decade-long US economic blockade and diplomatic sanctions, Venezuela, over the years, has become increasingly dependent on Chinese trade and investment. As part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Venezuela has received tens of billions of dollars in loans, trade, and investments.
In fact, it would not be an exaggeration to suggest that Venezuela has become China’s number one client state in Latin America. Ever since the coming to power of the left-leaning regime of Hugo Chavez, some three decades back, Beijing has extended as much as $62.5 billion in loans to Venezuela. In the current context, China remains Venezuela’s biggest creditor.
It is well known that Venezuela sits over the highest known oil reserves. Oil is Venezuela’s main and almost sole export. An increasingly energy reliant China, it has invested heavily in this sector. Needless to add, currently its firms have deep stakes in Venezuelan oil, power grids and infrastructure.
China maintains a long-term strategic economic interest in Venezuela. In late-August, a private Chinese firm announced plans to invest more than $1billion in an oilwell in the country, projected to produce 60,000 barrels of crude by the end of 2026, under a 20-year production sharing contract.
Notwithstanding this extreme dependence, Maduro has been able to use oil reserve as leverage “portraying itself not merely as a worthy recipient for Chinese aid but rather a strategic asset for Beijing.
Then there is arms angle to take into account. Close to 90% of Beijing’s arms transfers to Latin America over the past several years have all been channelled to Venezuela. While it is not as prominent as its economic investments, this nonetheless poses a significant challenge to the United States.
Ever since the beginning of the Boliviarian Revolution some three decades back, Venezuela and China have maintained a very high-level diplomatic relationship, with leaders of both countries visiting each other’s capital on a regular basis.
An ideological congruence between China and Venezuela, their deep antipathy towards the United States and mutual interests have brought these two powers into each other’s arms. This strategic embrace, obviously, have been precipitated by the US offensives against both Venezuela and China. On balance, the evolution and growth of Venezuela–China relations, need to be seen in the context of severe decline of the US trade and invest in the region and the meteoric economic rise of the People’s Republic of China to being Latin America’s main trading partner.
Countering US military adventurism
To face off the US threats, Maduro has called for a national preparedness that will see the whole of Venezuela rising up in arms against the enemy. Should there be a direct military confrontation between Venezuela and the US, the outcome will probably lead to a regime change. But the prospect of such an encounter and the possible after-effect have set the alarm bells ringing in Beijing.
Given the close relationship that both Venezuela and China share, it will come as no surprise that Beijing feels threatened by US gunboat diplomacy in the Caribbean. In a carefully worded statement, Beijing has said:
“The actions of the US seriously undermine peace and security of the region, seriously infringe upon the security, sovereignty and legitimate rights and interests of other countries, seriously violate international law.” Furthermore, it has reiterated “We oppose any foreign forces to interfere in internal affairs of Venezuela under any pretext.”
As response to US military activity in the region and threats to its sovereignty, Venezuela, on its part, has begun three days of military exercises on its Caribbean Island of La Orchila. Moving to the US side, it has already stationed 10 F-35 jets in the incorporated territory of Puerto Rico. It has also sent 7 warships to the region and a nuclear-powered submarine. All this are part of a new National Defense Strategy which will “prioritize protecting the [US] homeland and Western Hemisphere by countering foreign adversaries such as Beijing.”
In recent months, the US strongarms tactics against another regional power, Panama led to the latter reducing its dependence on Chinese shipping firms. In May, during a visit to the Caribbean the secretary of state Marco Rubio urged the Caribbean Community of nations to downgrade their relationship with China. It would appear Washington is now seeking to implement that desire through force.
A war in the Caribbean does not bode well for the region or the larger international security. Trump’s Venezuelan adventure may begin a chain reaction leading to China’s attack on Taiwan in the name of protecting “Chinese interest”. The Venezuelan imbroglio may be prelude to a water shade in international politics.
[Image credit: Pixabay]
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author.
