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Paulo Aguiar

Paulo Aguiar earned a master's degree in International Relations from NOVA University Lisbon, specializing in Realism, Classical Geopolitics, and Strategy. As a professional in geopolitical risk analysis and strategic foresight, Paulo regularly shares his insights through various publications and on his own Substack.
Commentary

Deep-Sea Mining: Who Will Control the Pacific’s Mineral Wealth?

Paulo Aguiar -
Who will control the Pacific’s depths? The U.S.–China rivalry dives underwater, where rare earths, power plays, and murky laws turn the seabed into the next great geopolitical frontier.

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Opinion

Turkey and Drone Warfare in the Pakistan-India Conflict

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Turkey's drones reshape South Asia's battlefield. In May’s India-Pakistan clash, Islamabad deployed 400+ Turkish UAVs—marking a new era of proxy warfare and Ankara’s deepening role in global flashpoints.
Commentary

Kyiv’s Unwavering Anti-China Stance: Ukraine Seeks to Lead Europe in Shifting Perceptions of Beijing

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Kyiv is leading Europe’s anti-China turn—accusing Beijing of fueling Russia’s war machine and pushing EU allies to confront China’s role. Ukraine’s fight now includes reshaping Europe’s entire view of Beijing.
Commentary

Deep-Sea Mining: Who Will Control the Pacific’s Mineral Wealth?

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Who will control the Pacific’s depths? The U.S.–China rivalry dives underwater, where rare earths, power plays, and murky laws turn the seabed into the next great geopolitical frontier.
Americas

The Canada Question in Trump’s MAGA Strategy

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Trump’s MAGA playbook eyes Canada—trade wars, Arctic tensions, even 51st state talk. Ottawa pushes back with sovereignty claims and infrastructure in Nunavut. Is this economic pressure or veiled expansionism?
Americas

Trump Pushes Boeing to Refocus Geo-Strategy at the Expense of China

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Trump’s Gulf tour lands Boeing \$120B+ in deals—part of a bold pivot from China to Middle East allies. But in a world of rising tariffs and shaky supply chains, can the strategy fly?

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