The US has been beating the war drums in the Southern Caribbean Sea for over two months now. What began as a naval offensive against Latin America’s drug gangs and cartels in the high seas now appears to metamorphose into a war undertaking against Venezuela.
While neither the US nor Venezuela has declared war against each other, the amassing of US firepower in the region and Venezuela’s battle preparedness would indicate a likely confrontation on the horizon.
How would the war pan out in the event of an actual armed confrontation between the US and Venezuela? We are of course aware of the superior US military might. In a conventional war, with the most powerful military machine in human history, the US can claim victory within days, hands down.
Can one write off Venezuela’s defeat so easily? What about Venezuela’s president, Nicolas Maduro’s claim that the entire nation would rise to a US invasion?
Firepower capacity
What about Venezuela’s own firepower capacity? What are its strengths and weaknesses in terms of military preparedness?
According to 2025 Global Fire Power Index score, Venezuela is ranked 50 out of the 145 countries considered. It has a reasonably capable force of over 120,000 military personnel in uniform and over 300,000 reservists.
As part of the Bolivarian Revolution, Maduro’s predecessor Hugo Chavez gave Venezuela a massive military facelift. It procured billions of dollars’ worth of armaments from Russia. Moscow sold Venezuela 23 Sukhoi fighter jets, eight helicopters, 12 anti-aircraft missiles and 44 surface-to-air missile systems in the early 2000s. This air war procurement was joined by 15 US F16 jets that Venezuela had procured in the 1980s, when it was in friendly terms with the US.
Significantly, for a middle-ranking naval power, Venezuela has a Sabalo submarine acquired from Germany in 1973. Furthermore, it has one operational Italian frigate; nine coastal patrol vessels, 25 armed speedboats and three landing vessels for 12 tanks and 200 personnel.
Taken together, Venezuela can boast a capable military, a credible air force and an effective navy. Thus, in the event of a US invasion, Venezuela can theoretically put up a brave line of defence across all areas.
While it has a sizeable arsenal and manpower, the battle preparedness of this personnel and hardware is untested.
The capacity of a conventional military force to fend off an enemy is proven in the event of an armed encounter with an external enemy. Venezuela, like the rest of its neighbours in Latin America, has never fought an inter-state war or external enemy. Its armed forces, like its other regional counterparts, have primarily engaged in suppressing internal dissents. Thus, how it would fare in a face-to-face battle against an outside force i.e., the US military, in the event of a ground invasion is anybody’s guess.
Second, turning to its hardware, the machinery to wage a conventional war is woefully inadequate. Years of economic embargo and severe restriction on the procurement of spare parts has continually hampered these military machineries’ battle-readiness. For instance, while it has US F-16 jets in its arsenal, the squadron’s deployment capacity is limited owing to a lack of upgrading and maintenance.
A likely US ground, sea, and air invasion would have the ostensible aim of a regime change in Caracas. The loyalty of national military in times of an externally sponsored regime change undertaking is always suspect. As we saw in Afghanistan in 2021 and Syria in 2024, the country’s military may easily switch sides or may not fight a war if it feels the outcome is going to favour the adversary.
Currently, the Venezuelan military personnel across the three areas of service (land, air and sea) lack internal coordination. Some of its high-ranking officers are not necessarily averse to a regime change. The troops are underfunded and lack the morale to fight. In the event of a US invasion, these military personnel’s abandonment of the regime should not come as a surprise.
A grassroots uprising?
What are the chances of a countrywide armed uprising in the event of a US invasion? Can Venezuela put up a brave fight even though it is hampered by a lack of operational military hardware?
Maduro has consistently indicated “a period of armed struggle in defence of the national territory” in the event of a US invasion of Venezuela. Maduro has claimed, the country’s regular army is supported by tens of thousands of paramilitaries.
What he means by such armed struggle is an asymmetric warfare by the Venezuelan militias against the invading forces. According to the numbers he has given, a third of the population are reservists and would take up arms in such an eventuality.
According to the news agency Reuters, Maduro’s government has plans of setting up small units of resistance in some 280 locations around the country. These could be used as “prolonged resistance” units against a potential US incursion. Trained and equipped in guerrilla warfare technique, these clandestine fronts could potentially undermine any external military presence. The likelihood of a sustained guerrilla warfare against an external invading force is remote, given the precarious economic condition in which most Venezuelans have been living for the past quarter-of-a century.
Unlikely external support
What about Caracas’ external allies? Would they come to the aid of Nicolás Maduro, if Venezuela were invaded? For decades, Venezuela has cozied up to the traditional enemies of the US. Both Maduro and his predecessor Chavez cultivated deep ties with Russia, China, Iran and closer to home with the left-led regimes in Cuba and Nicaragua. The first tier of nations is unlikely to provide military aid to Venezuela if the war breaks out. This is due to Russia’s military overstretch in Ukraine, China’s reluctance to take on the US openly, and Iran’s limited capability to help. The likes of Cuba and Nicaragua are in a deep economic mess themselves and won’t be of much help apart from issuing strong statements against the US and condemning its imperial designs in the region.
Maduro’s regime can expect precious little support from Colombia and Mexico, the two Latin American nations that have suffered US military strikes against their interest in the Caribbean Sea and the Pacific Ocean in recent weeks. Despite their aversion to US unilateral military strikes against their nation’s interests, these two can ill afford an open confrontation with the US by coming to the aid of Venezuela under Maduro.
Given the overwhelming odds and insurmountable realities on the ground, in all likelihood, a US-led invasion would be short and decisive.
[Photo by Cancillería del Ecuador, CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons]
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author.
