The US President Donald Trump recently confirmed that he has authorised the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) to carry out covert operations in the South American nation of Venezuela. This admission comes after several weeks of sporadic attacks by the US Navy on suspected cartel boats close to Venezuela’s maritime waters. Within the remits of the new classified operation, the CIA can conduct clandestine operations in a third country, ranging from undercover information, operations, training guerrilla opposition, conducting lethal military strikes on the country in question and the assets of the regime in charge.
The authorization is the latest step in the Trump administration’s intensifying pressure campaign against Venezuela. It is no secret that ever since assuming office, President Trump has taken a very hawkish stance against Venezuela’s current government, led by Nicolás Maduro. The United States considers Maduro’s regime illegal and has continuously accused it of indirectly undermining US interests.
When asked about the rationale behind his administration’s resolve to engage in an interventionist undertaking that directly undermines the sovereignty of a third country, Trump defended his stance on two interrelated grounds. As per Trump, he has since authorised such covert operations in Venezuela, because: “Number one, they [the Maduro regime] have emptied their prisons into the United States of America.” Second, due to Venezuela’s [read Maduro regime’s] role in drug-trafficking. “We have a lot of drugs coming in from Venezuela,” Trump said. “A lot of the Venezuelan drugs come in through the sea. So, you get to see that. But we’re going to stop them by land also.”
Speaking to the media while defending his gunboat diplomacy off the Venezuelan coast, Trump has said: “Every boat that we knock out, we save 25,000 American lives, so every time you see a boat and you feel badly you say, ‘Wow, that’s rough’: It is rough, but if you lose three people and save 25,000 people.” Thus, in the Trumpian terms, as the president himself has put it, “so when you think of it that way, what we’re doing is actually an act of kindness.”
The ground reality
Notwithstanding the veracity of Trump’s claims on threats to US national security and [il]legality surrounding such an operation, it is all but certain that we will, in fact, witness a coordinated military intervention in Venezuela in the coming days. What are the likely outcomes of such an overt undertaking?
Maduro’s regime is on firm ground when it questions the illegality of such an invasion. As Maduro has said: “The purpose of US actions is to create legitimacy for an operation to change the regime in Venezuela, with the ultimate goal of taking control of all the country’s resources.” While this may be true, the regime can expect little or no help from the international community or the key institutions to come to its aid.
Fearing such a ground invasion, Maduro has been whipping up nationalist sentiment within Venezuela by asking his countrymen to join the great patriotic war against the enemy if the occasion arises. But if the US offensive goes ahead, one can expect very little opposition from the civilians who have been browbeaten by decades of regime purge and have little by way of economic sustenance. Given the sorry state of Venezuela’s economy, which is in tatters following years of US sanctions, most Venezuelans would, in fact, welcome an invasion.
On his part, Trump has declined to admit whether he has authorized the CIA to overthrow Nicolas Maduro. But he has said, “I think Venezuela’s feeling the heat.” The latest declaration by Trump comes on the heels of his ordering an end to diplomatic talks with the Maduro government in early October. According to reports, Trump has grown frustrated with the Venezuelan leader’s failure to accede to U.S. demands to give up power voluntarily. Consequently, it would appear he has given a go-ahead to his top diplomats to undertake a tacit regime change in Venezuela. While Trump has admitted about the coming role of the CIA in the country, His team overseeing the affairs in Venezuela, are now openly pushing for ousting Maduro.
Deep down, Maduro’s regime is aware of the ground realities. Fearing that it stands to lose in the event of a ground invasion, Maduro has called for the American people to oppose any such move by the Trump administration. Following Trump’s admission, in a message intended for the American people, Maduro has said in English: “Not war, yes peace. The people of the US, please.”
Support from within
The timing of Trump’s declaration is supremely significant. It comes shortly after Venezuela received wide international coverage following the Norwegian Nobel Committee awarding this year’s peace prize to its most important dissident.
Trump’s decision to engage in land-based strikes on Venezuela that can potentially lead to regime change has received significant support from the country’s opposition. Maria Machado, Venezuela’s opposition leader, who recently won the Nobel Peace Prize for standing up to authoritarianism, dedicated her prize to Donald Trump for the latter’s unwavering support for the cause of democracy in her country. Machado herself has suggested that the attention brought by the Nobel Peace Prize might lead to increased international intervention in Venezuela
Venezuelans deserve a transparent government, a responsible administration and a future free of US economic sanctions, which has led to the destruction of the economy and depleted the national self-worth. Achieving these objectives through external manipulation of their cause risks deeply dividing the country for years and decades to come.
Regime change through external intervention or by propping up an opposition from within by a third country does not always end well. Iraq, Libya, and Afghanistan are some of the most potent examples of foreign-led regime change initiatives that went horribly wrong. Countries with regime-led nationalistic fervour – as is the case with Venezuela – risk sliding down the path of civil war in the event of an externally sponsored putsch.
As one critic has cautioned, in a deeply divided society such as Venezuela, where the current political process is fiercely polarised, any regime change undertaking risks becoming “an effective tool for advancing a form of authoritarianism that is repackaged as democracy. In this new scenario, “opponents are then cast as enemies of freedom who must be eliminated, the destruction of whom allows for a broader project that benefits the very rich while leaving working people in misery.” Poor Venezuela, it is stuck between a rock and a hard place.
[Photo by Kremlin.ru, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons]
Amalendu Misra is a professor of international politics in the School of Global Affairs, Lancaster University, United Kingdom. He’s on X (formerly Twitter) @MisraAmalendu. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author.
