The Western world has confined itself to a role of mere spectator watching traumatized Ukrainians from safe bubbles who are bravely fighting their own decisive battle against an aggressor state, the economic sanctions imposed by the United States and other European members on Russia is just a face saving exercise and exposes the failure of American-led coalition to ensure peace and territorial integrity of its friends in the region.
This recent debacle has created a dilemma for India who is slacklining on a tightrope to effectively balance its relations with Russia and Western allies. This is evident by the fact why India opted to abstain and not voted in favor or against the resolution of the UN Security Council drafted by the US to stop Russian military advances against Ukraine and compelled it to come to the negotiating table for resolving differences diplomatically.
In a paper published by Sameer Lalwani and others for Stimson Center have shown that precisely 86% of Indian military hardware are of Russian origin and the country is still heavily dependent upon Russia for spare parts and regular maintenance of these equipment.
But cooperation between the two nations is limited mostly to the defense sector, Russia is not even among the top 20 trading partners of India. Bilateral trade between both countries is less than $10 billion.
On the other hand, the United States is India’s biggest foreign trade partner with a trade volume exceeding $100 billions in 2021. Similarly India receives $14 billion worth of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) from America which is second only to Singapore.
These statistics largely explain that our economic interests are tilted more towards the Western world but unlike them India cannot take a clearer position and dare to speak against the invasion as it may lead to compromised defense capability due to heavy reliance on the Russian military complex.
The cordial relation between two countries stood the test of time. India along with Yugoslavia and Egypt established the foundation of Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) in 1956. The goal was to not join American/Soviet power blocks during the Cold War era but India due to its early socialist outlook deviated from its early non-aligned position to side with the latter power.
Under the leadership of Indira Gandhi and Leonid Brezhnev both countries signed a security pact according to which the Soviet Union was bound to defend India in case of external aggression, this treaty obligation greatly helped India in the 1971 war against its eastern neighbor when Soviet nuclear submarines blocked the 7th Fleet of the US in Bay of Bengal and this moment became a deciding factor in the liberation of Bangladesh from Pakistani occupation.
The Soviet Union that later became Russia vetoed sanctions against India after the nuclear test of 1974 and 1999. In the Kargil conflict as well India received Russia’s imperative support. Similarly Russia has always come to India’s rescue on the contentious Kashmir issue at the critical times in to the UNSC.
Even though India is now one of the key members of the Quad and a major strategic ally of the US in the Indo-Pacific region, it hasn’t fully shed the garb of neutrality and that’s why backed Russia in the current conflict, but will Russia reciprocate the same gesture and back India in an escalation with China or Pakistan? We already know the answer, it most likely won’t.
In the Galwan valley clash last year between Indian defense forces and People’s liberation army of China, the former lost 20 soldiers in a bloody violent confrontation. At that time, Russia had taken a minimalist stand and even ruled out mediation between Asian powers. This change of heart is not sudden but over decades, economic ties and strategic cooperation between Russia and China have been strengthened to strive a balance against the Western power.
Unfolding Russia-Ukraine standoff poses a big challenge to the Indian foreign policymakers. New Delhi is steadily losing a trusted and reliable partner due to its collaboration with America and European countries. If tension with China escalates and turns into a full blown non-nuclear military conflict, India will be backstabbed by its newly founded allies and suffer the same fate as Ukraine if not worse.
India’s top Generals and Marshals have tried to take the audience into confidence, as they argue India has acumen and wherewithal to deal with the formidable threat of two-front war like scenarios involving China and Pakistan.
In 2019, India faced the real war like situation after Indian Air Force breaked into Pakistan’s territory to strike on alleged Jaish-e-Mohammed terrorist camps. The skirmish between sub-regional nuclear nations exposed India’s self proclamation of being a superior power.
India largely failed on all fronts, we shot down our own Mi17 military helicopter in a friendly fire which left 6 IAF personnel dead, India also faced a huge embarrassment when its MiG21 Bison aircraft crashed in neighbor’s territory and Pakistan got its hand on living war booty to show-off the entire world that they managed to capture a prisoner of war. Most importantly due to lack of proper communication channels between Foreign Ministry and Defense department, India badly lost to Pakistan in building a media narrative in its own favor.
India needs to get its act together, self congratulatory wisdom and blind praises for the Indian military forces won’t help to maintain deterrence let alone securing borders. Government must focus on expanding the indegenious defense capacity which is in a nascent stage, at the same time India should diversify its defense purchases to erase the inelasticity vis-a-vis our dependence on Russia for critical technology and platforms.
[Photo by G20 Argentina via Flicker]
Ajit Singh is a hobbyist writer who has graduated in economics, currently a sophomore in the B.Ed. programme, has written on wide range of issues from education to economics and social justice. He can be reached at [email protected].
