“Globalization is almost dead, and free trade is almost dead. Many people are still expecting them to return, but I don’t think they will return in a short time.” On December 6, 2022, Mr. Zhang Zhongmou, founder of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), made the above remarks at the company’s new wafer factory’s machine transfer ceremony in Arizona, USA.
US President Joe Biden also attended the ceremony touting this newly announced factory by TSMC in north Phoenix as an economic boon for Arizona, and American manufacturing or Made in the USA is back. So after two decades, the tide seems to circle from globalization back to localization. Why are we going back to the starting point?
Since the end of the Cold War between the two camps led by the United States and the Soviet Union in 1991, a wave of democratization has swept the world for a while. It was so encouraging that some optimists were eager to push for a new stage of so-called “post-democratization,” that is, economic and trade globalization. However, with the rising smoke of the Sino-US trade war in 2018 and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, people suddenly found that the seemingly prosperous globalization in the past 20 years is more like “a pot of half-cooked rice.”
Why does globalization become “half-cooked” or, in the words of Mr. Zhang quoted above, “Globalization is almost dead”? The answer should not be too complicated: because the objective and tasks of democratization are far from being accomplished in the first place. Rushing to promote globalization under such immature conditions often results in bitter fruit. Once some non-democratic countries turn their backs, they can “weaponize” the energy or food supply in trade and use it to blackmail their customers into achieving their political agenda, such as Russia now trying to annex and occupy the sovereign state of Ukraine.
Democratization is crucial because it reaches a higher level of civilization, and wars and conflicts rarely occur among modern democracies. Relevant disputes can often be resolved through referendum and election voting, negotiations, mediation, and compromise. Hence democratization should be mandatory for the realization of normal and healthy globalization. Otherwise, the process would embed hidden dangers and outbreaks of crisis, and can be reversed by the counter-offensive of dictatorship. This is a painful lesson learned.
The Faulty Globalization Without Democratization
Back in the early 19th century, Tocqueville, the author of “On Democracy in America,” already predicted: “Would it, then, be wise to imagine that a social impulse which dates from so far back can be checked by the efforts of a generation? … Will it (democracy) stop now that it has grown so strong and its adversaries so weak?”
Historically, the Cold War can be deemed the first wave of the duel between democracy and dictatorship. The two sides clashed on many fronts, such as social systems, values, economies, technologies, education, and military powers. Eventually, the Soviet Eastern bloc got defeated without a fight.
With the Cold War’s surprising conclusion, many in the West might have optimistically expected democracy will quickly reshape the whole world. Such optimism was well represented by an essay published in 1989 by the American magazine the National Interest with the strikingly bold title “The End of History?”. Its author, the political scientist Francis Fukuyama, announced that the great ideological battles between the East and West were over and that Western liberal democracy had triumphed.
But history doesn’t go in a straight line. Based on a blog from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Oct 2022, “Over the past two decades, democratic backsliding has become a defining trend in global politics.” According to this Freedom House 2022 report: Global freedom faces a dire threat. Around the world, the enemies of liberal democracy — a form of self-government in which human rights are recognized, and every individual is entitled to equal treatment under law—are accelerating their attacks.
There are already a lot of research and analyses on the reasons for global democratic backsliding over the past two decades. One major issue was globalization without democratization. It’s worth noting that at the start of the century, globalization started nearly at the same time when China was granted entry to the World Trade Organization (WTO) and Vladimir Putin took over the top power in Russia. Some reasoning is that globalization and economic development will help promote democracy in developing counties or pre-totalitarian countries, but the reality turns out things can go either way.
Without democratization actively moving in advance or in parallel with economic and trade development, it may, unfortunately, provide authoritarian regimes with economic and financial favors and strengthen the authoritarian rulings in countries and areas associated. The world used to cope with dictatorship, mostly in values and arms, but now we have to face authoritarians also rich in trade and economy. To correct and fix such issues, that’s the reason we now see the regression in globalization, key technology decoupling, and more emphasis on supply chain security.
This is not to say that globalization in the past 20 years has been totally in vain. It actually helped lift many people in many countries out of poverty, and allowed these people to have the initial taste of modern middle-class life. But with the revival of quite a few authoritarian regimes across the globe, this phase of globalization has become unsustainable and more of a threat than a blessing to the world. Now it simply needs a pause of momentum and a change of direction. Hence this is where we are in the interim or transition toward the new phase of globalization. During this interim and transition, a more solid bridge needs to be established between nations and globalization.
The Russia-Ukraine War as a Catalyst for Tide-Turning Changes in 2023
In the coming 2023, the world can reach a critical juncture of the so-called second wave of democratization or authoritarianism since both sides have chances to rise or decline. Meanwhile, the world believes the micro trend of human civilization is freedom and democracy, and it won’t be reversed by a few authoritarian revisionists.
Of course, the world must also work hard to prevent such tragic reversion. The painful lesson learned from the first wave of democratization carries two-folded meanings. First, democracy must be realized from all aspects of society. Any quasi model like a free market with dictatorship in politics eventually won’t work out. Democracy needs to be a home run and mission accomplished.
Second, democracy is not just letting others change in their countries, assuming we are already all good here at home. Such a complacent attitude and blind mindset can only weaken democracy itself to a less competitive and attractive level. Democracy also needs continuous self-enhancement. Civilians in modern societies must take very good care of democracy ongoing basis and prevent minor issues from looming into big crises.
For instance, in today’s US politics and society, the biggest caution is to watch and check on any forms of extremism because extremism is anti-democracy and anti-freedom. It is authoritarianism that favors extremism, while democracy should always uphold the balance of power and principles of the Constitution. Be aware that if we allow extremism to hijack democracy, then authoritarianism can laugh the best.
As for the prospect of 2023, although historical changes usually take longer to happen, some special events can cut short the process and help accelerate the changes. The current Russo-Ukraine war no doubt makes such a special event. To the international democratic community, ensuring Ukraine’s final victory over Russia is not only for maintaining Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, but also for triggering “the second wave of democratization” worldwide.
Right now, Russia is trapped deep in the Ukraine war; Iran is struggling with nationwide human rights protests and economic bankruptcies; China is still haunted by the Covid-19 spread and aftermath of its rigid zero-lockdown policies; Other authoritarian countries like Myanmar, North Korea, Cuba, and Venezuela all face bleak domestic social and economic challenges. The anti-democracy axis is showing signs of exhaustion.
In the coming new year, Russia can become the first falling card of a Domino chain reaction. The Russian and Ukraine war may cause internal political turmoil and changes in Russia, which in turn, may cause further changes in Central Asia, East Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America. Democracy must take the upper hand for the sake of a better world tomorrow. This second wave of democratization is less about the duel of East vs. West, Euro Union vs. Russia, United States vs. China, Israel vs. Iran, and South Korea vs. North Korea. It’s more about the modern world vs. the old world, and the start of a new era vs. the end of history.
[Photo by Pyae Sone Htun, via Unsplash]
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author.
David W. Wang is a senior columnist and author on international affairs, and consulting principal on global market development. David is based in Washington DC.
