In 2024, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. approved the 3rd phase of the Armed Forces of the Philippines Modernization Program (AFPMP). With an estimated cost of PhP 2 trillion (approximately USD $35 billion), this represents a significant shift in the country’s defense outlook and priorities. Dubbed as the “re-horizoned phase 3”, this final stage together with the Comprehensive Archipelagic Defense Concept (CADC) reinforces the continuing transformation of the AFP.
However, this has raised concerns about the government’s ability to achieve its defense goals. The program’s previous horizons have suffered delays due to inadequate funding, fragmented acquisition, and changing political priorities. Moreover, the possible victory of pro-Beijing candidates in the 2028 national elections, can result in further problems.
Nevertheless, the urgency of its completion has not diminished. The rising tensions in the West Philippine Sea, combined with the surge in offensive cyber and malign influence activities, underscore the precariousness of the situation.
From territorial defense to multi-layered deterrence
At the onset, the AFPMP was intended to improve the country’s external defense. This includes the restoration of the AFP’s conventional military capabilities that were lost due to the prolonged counterinsurgency campaign and the withdrawal of the U.S. bases. Today, the adoption of the CADC highlights the need to improve the country’s credible deterrence posture. From operating legacy systems to integrated platforms, this shift provides the AFP with a new mission of protecting the country’s maritime entitlements and address multi-domain threats. Furthermore, the Self-Reliance Defense Posture Law reflects the Philippines’ desire to strengthen its local defense industries by opening opportunities through foreign partnerships and technology transfers. Overall, the highlights of this shift can be seen through the following:
Adoption of a multi-layered defense strategy: From restoring its lost external defense capabilities, the CADC envisions an AFP that can project military power beyond the country’s coastal boundaries. This includes the ability to protect the Philippine EEZ, participate in joint military exercises, and address non-traditional threats. These aspirations were partially realized through the acquisition of FA-50PH light fighters. Furthermore, the arrival of the Brahmos missile systems provides the needed land-based stand-off capabilities for the AFP, a first in its history. While the frigate and OPV acquisition programs illustrate the country’s desire to maintain a credible presence in its maritime zones.
To ensure operational readiness, the AFP participates in joint exercises and maritime patrol activities. The country’s defense posture is further enhanced by the Status of Forces Agreements with international partners.
Finally, to further strengthen its capabilities, the Department of National Defense (DND) proposed revisions to the current modernization law to allow the government to adopt a capability-based procurement scheme. This approach promotes the development of integrated capabilities while strengthening political and industrial partnerships. For instance, DND Secretary Gilberto Teodoro stated the acquisition of multi-role fighters for the Philippine Air Force should be combined with the purchase of air refueling and airborne warning systems aircraft. To address the huge financial requirement, Sec. Teodoro proposed that policies be revised to allow the increase in the amount of loans that the DND can negotiate with potential suppliers. At present, the ceiling for defense-related loans is at USD $300 million.
Organizational Restructuring– The adoption of CADC and the subsequent implementation of the “re-horizoned” phase 3, also required changes in command structure. The AFP Strategic Command is an example of this, highlighting the need to ensure interoperability among operational commands and with allies. Similarly, the newly established AFP Intelligence Command is envisioned to foster information fusion among military units and enhance cooperation with allied militaries. While plans are underway to develop the AFP Cyber Command. In addition, the AFP major services are creating units to respond to this new national defense paradigm. For instance, the Philippine Army has activated a missile defense unit within its artillery service. The Philippine Marine Corps has created a coastal defense regiment, while the Philippine Air Force has reactivated units dedicated to air combat, surveillance, and air defense. For its part, the Philippine Navy is investing in sub-surface capabilities and maritime domain awareness systems.
A possible way forward
This shift in Philippine defense policy comes with the recognition of the contentious and rapidly evolving security landscape of the region. In addition, the weaponization of emerging technologies and the development of asymmetric capabilities make the transformation of the AFP more compelling. For instance, Ukraine’s effective use of drones for reconnaissance and as loitering munitions has helped offset Russia’s traditional military advantage. While offensive cyber operations are being combined with cognitive and electronic warfare, ushering a new dimension of warfighting. These trends will have a significant impact on the AFP’s mission, doctrines, structure, and role.
On a broader note, sustaining the AFPMP remains vital for the national interest. Therefore, government officials and policymakers must address persistent challenges besetting the program. For instance, to ensure strong political commitment, strategic communication combined with inclusion strategies can be used to strengthen public interest. Infomercials, digital content through social media, the mobilization of the reserve force, and citizen participation in defense drills among others are examples of how to reinforce the issue into the public consciousness.
Another issue is the huge financial requirement of the AFPMP. This can be presented as part of a broader economic development effort. By creating synergies with defense industries and other economic sectors, this can open new opportunities for innovation and growth. For this purpose, a whole-of-government scheme is necessary. Joint investment programs with Defense, Trade, Development Planning, and Science departments are avenues to jumpstart this concept. Moreover, ensuring the resilience of the AFP’s supply chain remains paramount. This underscores the importance of the private sector in the overall transformation effort.
An equally essential aspect of this policy shift is to strengthen partnerships with allies and like-minded nations. This will allow the country to be agile in responding to emerging threats and leapfrog technological gaps.
In closing, the DND and the AFP must remain transparent and accountable, especially in the implementation of its modernization program. It must reject attempts to politicize the process and continue to uphold its constitutional mandate. It must also adhere to good governance practices to further strengthen its credibility among allies and continue to enjoy the trust of the Filipino people.
[Photo BRP Miguel Malvar FFG06 – PF, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons]
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author.
Sherwin E. Ona is an associate professor of political science and development studies at De La Salle University. He is a senior fellow of the Philippine Public Safety College and the Stratbase Institute. Dr. Ona is also an alumnus of the DKI-Asia Pacific Center for Security Studies and an international fellow of the Institute for National Defense and Security Research of Taiwan.
