The Russo-Ukrainian War has completed a year, yet there is no clear victor. But there is no hope of a roll back or peace talks. US President Joe Biden made a surprise visit to Ukrainian, on the eve of completion of one year of war, to reassure the continued US support to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in his valiant fight back against the mighty Russia.
The two presidential speeches that followed, one by the US President Joe Biden and the other by the Russian President Vladimir Putin — with both the presidents sounding war bugles, induce fears of a possible third world war.
During his surprise visit to Kyiv, the US President Joe Biden promised new military aid for Ukraine worth $500 million that will include artillery ammunition, anti-armour systems and air surveillance radars “to help protect the Ukrainian people from aerial bombardments.” Shortly after the US President’s visit, Pentagon hinted that it might expedite delivery of its promised M1A2 Abrams main battle tanks to Ukraine.
“Freedom is priceless. It is worth fighting for as long as it takes. And that’s how long we’re going to be with you, Mr. President. As long as it takes,” Biden told President Volodymyr Zelenskiy after the talks.
“Russia suspends its participation in the New Start treaty,” announced the Kremlin leader in his two-hour long state of the nation address. New Start treaty is the last remaining nuclear arms control agreement between Russia and America valid till Feb. 4, 2026 which limits the nuclear count of both the countries. Signed in 2010 by the then two presidents — Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev — the New Start treaty was designed to prevent a nuclear war. It limits the number of strategic nuclear warheads that both sides can deploy, and gives each country the power to inspect the other.
The Russian president also announced that he had signed a decree on “putting new ground-based strategic complexes on combat standby duty.” The essence of Putin’s speech was that he is ready to escalate the war, in response to what he views as an American escalation.
Moscow’s suspension of its participation in the New Start treaty raises the nuclear risks. “This is more about nuclear blackmail, but it is extremely dangerous,” believes Andrei Kolesnikov of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, because we cannot predict how Putin will behave in the future and what is in his mind.
“The cost that Ukraine has had to pay is extraordinarily high. Sacrifices have been far too great,” Biden told reporters. The year-long Russo-Ukrainian War has caused immense human costs, in terms of the number of casualties of military personnel of both the countries and the civilian population of Ukraine. Gen Mark Milley, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff estimated in November 2022 that around 100,000 Russian and 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed or injured in the war in Ukraine. He also suggested that around 40,000 civilians had died after being caught up in the conflict.
In recent times, democracies and non-democracies are producing leaders who are obsessed with nationalist pride and geopolitical interests rather than the well-being of mankind. Great powers should respect each other’s security concerns and the red-lines, in order not to turn the present times into an era of wars.
The Ukrainians have made their intentions clear — Kiev wants the complete restoration of Crimea and eastern Ukraine. And Ukraine enjoys the good wishes of the West in its bold endeavors to take back Crimea. But Crimea is a clear red-line for Russia, not to be crossed by Ukraine. Russia cannot afford to lose its naval base at its only warm-water port, Sevastopol. If it loses Crimea and Sevastopol port, it ceases being a major power, as it will be isolated away from the vital Black Sea region.
No doubt, Crimea was part of Ukraine before it was captured by Russia on Feb. 27, 2014. To attempt to take back Crimea from the Russians would exponentially escalate this war, with potential for immense costs for the whole humanity. Ukraine needs to prioritize the price of sovereignty vis-a-vis the price of human lives.
The battles are hard to fight and the realities are bitter to swallow, when the opponent is strong and determined. Such wars leave no victors, but only destruction and suffering. Thrusting a world war on the mankind for petty territorial disputes is not sane.
Russia’s attacks on Ukraine infrastructure and the civilians are beyond the rule book. Its nuclear blackmail is a nightmare. Its concerns for not having NATO in its backyard may be genuine. But Russia will remain a great power, only as long as it keeps its nuclear arsenal as a deterrent. An open mind to Ukrainian aspirations will make Russia a truly benign power. Diplomacy serves better than war, in this modern era.
[Photo by Estonian Foreign Ministry, via Wikimedia Commons]
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author.
The author is an alumnus of IIM, Ahmedabad and a retired senior corporate professional.
