In the hopeful aftermath of the 2011 Jasmine Revolution, the Maghreb looked ready to reset; opening to foreign investment, diversifying and modernizing its economies, and knitting itself into an integrated, competitive market where trade and mobility deliver shared prosperity. Tunisia, the region’s democratic pioneer, was meant to be the catalyst.
But a decade later, that promise is slipping away. Tunisia stands at a dangerous crossroads, economically bankrupt, politically repressed, and diplomatically adrift. Under President Kaïs Saïed’s authoritarian turn, a country long known for measured diplomacy and a pro-Western orientation, has tilted toward Algiers, departing from its traditional neutrality on Western Sahara, by backing the Polisario’s referendum line, and granting head-of-state protocol to Brahim Ghali. This shift erodes Tunisia’s strategic autonomy, narrows its economic options, and weakens the region’s peace-through-prosperity architecture precisely when North Africa most needs openness, integration, and reform.
In this shifting landscape, and after President Trump’s tour-de-force ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, achieved through synchronized military and diplomatic pressure, the U.S. administration is now zeroing in on the Algeria–Morocco standoff. Washington is paying exceptional attention to ending differences and building a common future based on peace and prosperity. Even with sustained U.S. engagement, early gains will likely be provisional rather than transformative: Algeria’s generals may flirt with AFRICOM ties and U.S. energy deals and even feign flexibility on Western Sahara, but their legitimacy is built on anti-Moroccan nationalism, making any thaw fragile and easily reversed.
To turn a pause into a durable peace, Washington should bring Tunisia into the equation as the stabilizing third pillar. A Tunis–Rabat axis, rooted in reform and openness, could form the backbone of a renewed North African partnership that works hand-in-hand with the United States and the Abraham Accords countries. Together, they can anchor a new arc of cooperation linking security coordination, investment flows, and innovation across the region.
From Peace to Prosperity: Why Tunisia Matters
Steve Witkoff, the U.S. government’s special envoy for the Middle East, said recently that Washington aims to restore Morocco–Algeria relations within roughly two months and to move swiftly on Western Sahara. His line “Doing a peace deal is becoming infectious” captures the momentum, but it will hold and bring prosperity only if spoilers are stripped of their proxies. That means standing up a third pillar: a free, reform-oriented, economically viable Tunisia. Absent that pillar, Algiers will keep wielding a Saïed-led, aid-dependent Tunisia as a pressure tool against Rabat, eroding any U.S.-brokered détente before it hardens into peace.
The Abraham Accords proved that peace scales when it is tied to prosperity; the same logic must extend westward. A Tunisia on a new trajectory – restoring institutional autonomy, reopening to investment, and reconnecting with the West – would serve as the stabilizing hinge: it denies Algiers a proxy, plugs Morocco’s modernization into regional supply chains, and reintroduces trust and deal-making across MENA. Crucially, Tunisia also offers the strongest near-term business upside in North Africa; an agile market among regional heavyweights with feet of clay, making it the most credible platform for U.S.-led investment in healthcare, tourism, renewables, logistics, and digital services.
And success would not stop at its borders: the contagion effect would be immediate in Libya, Tunisia’s natural economic extension, spurring cross-border demand, rebuilding supply chains, and reinforcing stability to the east.
In short: don’t just broker a handshake between Algiers and Rabat, make peace infectious by anchoring it in a reformed Tunisia and a U.S.-backed Tunis–Rabat corridor of security cooperation, investment, energy, and technology.
Break the Grip: Putting Tunisia on a New Trajectory
Algeria’s shaky regime grips Tunisia like a lifeline, preferring a compliant neighbor to a competitive one; it now treats the country as a de facto wilaya and backs Kaïs Saïed’s tenure to keep Tunis in its orbit.
Algeria is locked in an archaic rent-seeking system buttressed by anti-Moroccan nationalism and has every incentive to keep Tunisia precarious and compliant so it never outshines, or constrains, Algiers. Since 2011, Algeria’s military leadership has sought to suppress Tunisia’s democratic trajectory and to obstruct economic freedom, structural reform, and external openness; as regional diplomacy gathers momentum, its unease intensifies.
Algiers faces a regime dilemma: real reform means dismantling opaque rent networks that secure elite power; refusing reform accelerates decay. The result is visible drift into decline, fear of scrutiny, fear of its citizens, and a brittle equilibrium that could snap from internal pressure or from aftershocks of Tunisia’s crisis. The anger rising in Tunis mirrors the frustration simmering in Algiers; when pressure builds in parallel, collapse comes in waves.
Today, Tunisia is ready to turn the page on a troubled chapter marked by economic stagnation, political instability, and diminished freedoms. The nation finds itself at a crossroads, presented with a historic opportunity to reshape its future and reassert its role as a dynamic and influential player in the global economy. Healthcare, in particular, offers a strategic avenue for growth, positioning Tunisia as a potential regional hub of medical excellence, addressing regional demand across care delivery, training, and life-sciences supply chains. By adapting Singapore’s medical-hub model, Tunisia can bring in top-tier U.S. capital and know-how, turning scattered success stories into an efficient, export-oriented healthcare sector, with a long-run goal of tapping $50–$100 billion in annual cross-border demand. However, seizing this opportunity will require Tunisia to carefully navigate the complexities of its forthcoming transition and avoid repeating the missteps of the past.
Furthermore, with U.S. backing, Tunisia should be insulated from Algiers’ coercive leverage, ending a toxic dependency and the constant threat it poses to the country’s future economic and geopolitical gains. Washington’s role is clear: help Tunisia secure its borders with Algeria and Libya through smart-border tech, ISR radars and drones, modern crossings and command-and-control, joint anti-smuggling units, and sovereignty-respecting training and intel. This also protects U.S. firms, supply chains, and DFC/Ex-Im–backed project sites on the ground and creates a predictable, bankable operating environment.
In parallel, anchor this protection in a durable architecture by enabling U.S. companies and healthcare providers to build a cross-Mediterranean network of hospitals, clinics, and training centers serving neighboring European and African patients; a multibillion-dollar opportunity that creates U.S. jobs, expands exports, and aligns with an America-First vision while strengthening U.S. influence in the Mediterranean.
Set a new trajectory. From peace to prosperity, North Africa’s next chapter begins in Tunis.
[Photo by Lassaad Aouichaoui, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons]
Ghazi Ben Ahmed is a recognized expert on Mediterranean and Middle Eastern affairs and the Founder of the Mediterranean Development Initiative. With extensive experience in regional economic development, geopolitics, and international relations, he has worked closely with policymakers, think tanks, and institutions across the MENA region. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author.
